Gale Warning 715, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 041207
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB AS
IT MOVES INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-050200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-050200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH WIND 30 TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-050200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT NORTH OF THE CHAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT INCREASING TO 17 FT NORTH OF THE CHAIN. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT...HIGHEST NORTH OF THE
CHAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST NORTH OF THE CHAIN. SEAS 
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU OCT 4 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM ADT WED OCT 3 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
BERING IS AIDING IN THE STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
CROSSING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE MAX
GALE TO MIN STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
NO OBS AVAILABLE TO VERIFY THAT. TO THE EAST IS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A STRONG UPPER JET WITH MAX AROUND
170 KT EXTENDS FROM THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AKPENN INTO THE PACIFIC. 140 TO 145 KT OBSERVED IN SAINT PAUL
AND COLD BAYS MORNING SOUNDINGS. THE UPPER JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE AKPENN AND KODIAK ISLAND
WATERS INTO THE GULF. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS EVERYTHING
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS...PASSAGE CANAL...AND
RESURRECTION BAY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED NORTH OF CANTWELL AND IN
PUNTILLA. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED AS THE
BERING RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD SO COLD ADVECTION WILL BE COMING TO
A HALT BY LATER TODAY. WITH THE ADVECTION OF A MORE STABLE AIRMASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND HAS CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INITIAL
SYNOPTIC POSITIONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING OF THE
ALEUTIAN LOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT FORMS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.
HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW IS VERY
SIMILAR...BUT THE SPEED DIFFERS WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTEST...NAM
THE SLOWEST...AND UKMET/GFS IN BETWEEN. GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS VERY
GOOD CONSISTENCY ON THE LAST TWO SYNOPTIC RUNS AND UKMET MATCHES UP
ALMOST EXACTLY SO WILL GO WITH THIS SOLUTION. ALL OF THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TRACK FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. CONTRADICTORY TO
THIS IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE WITH MOST MEMBER AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
TRACKING A WEAKER TRIPLE POINT LOW NORTHWARD TO COOK INLET. WITH
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVELS AND A DECENT JET THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED. WILL AGAIN GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPENN...THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES
BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ACCESS TO
ARCTIC AIR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF WARM AND JUICY AIR BEING
PUMPED UP FROM THE TROPICS AHEAD OF THE LOW...SO THERE WILL BE A
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE COLD FRONT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY OCCLUDE BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE
TRIPLE POINT AND WARM/COLD FRONT ARE PUSHED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.
AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST ON FRIDAY ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF RUSSIA AND HELP BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO
BE PULLED DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN BERING. WITH COLD AIR MOVING OVER WARM WATERS EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING/SOUTHWEST
COASTLINE...AND AKPENN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN SNOW OR ICE PELLETS IN NORTHERN AREAS. THE SHORT-WAVE
THAT DROPS OUT OF RUSSIA FRIDAY WILL VERY QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
BERING SEA SATURDAY AND AKPENN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
KODIAK AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO A HALT AS UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND IS STOPPED NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM TEMPS AT OR BELOW THIS MORNINGS TEMPS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION NOT FAR BEHIND. BECAUSE
THERE IS A LOT OF WARM AIR BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE INLAND LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHEN PRECIPITATION
REACHES THOSE AREAS LATE THURSDAY. AS MAIN LOW AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE SOME PRECIP AS FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
SYSTEM SETTING UP WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL PLACES. ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY CONTAIN SNOW.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LIKELY JUST BECOMING COLD AND DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND MEAN TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL SET UP A DRY
AND COLD PERIOD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 160 165 170 179 185.
         GALES 120 132 150 155 171 172 175 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 07