Gale Warning 708, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 011148
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT THU NOV 1 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY THIS MORNING MOVES INLAND NEAR SEWARD
THIS EVENING AT 986 MB. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN
BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING AND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT...AS A 970 MB LOW MOVES TO
57N 174E.
$$

PKZ411-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM ADT THU NOV 1 2007

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT THU NOV 1 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
  

$$

PKZ413-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM ADT THU NOV 1 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
W OF 175W. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM ADT THU NOV 1 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL NCEP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE AND FORECAST TRENDS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT. PREFER HOW THE GFS DEVELOPS TRIPLE
POINT CENTER WITH LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA FRI NIGHT SAT VICE
SINGLE CENTER ON THE NAM/UKMET AND SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA CLEARS THE ALASKA RANGE
THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW
CENTER MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DIMINISH IN RESPONSE OF TROUGH LIFTING NORTH. ALSO MAY SEE POCKETS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG UNTIL WINDS KICK IN ON THU. A 984 MB LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON IS HANDLED WELL ON THE
GFS 6 HR FORECAST. EXPECT CENTER TO MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN
THU AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN INTO THE UPPER 970S/LOWER 980S. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE KENAI PEN AND NORTH GULF COAST
THU AND MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS THU NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH. WIDESPREAD GALES TO MIN STORMS LIKELY OVER
COASTAL MARINE AREAS. STRONG WIND HEADLINES LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU. EXPECT WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN ALONG THE COAST
WITH A MIX OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR AREAS THU. RESIDUAL LOW CENTER
HANGS BACK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION...IN PLACE MOISTURE...AND DYNAMICS WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A FAIR TREAT OF SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THU NIGHT AND FRI.

.WEST...980S LOW OVER THE DELTA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS DEVELOPING CENTER UNDERCUTS THE AK PEN. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOW OVER SW AK...EXCEPT SOME MIX OVER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH SOME FOG THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDING ALOFT. EXPECT STRONG NLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE
OF LOW CENTER AS IT UNDERCUTS THE AK PEN TONIGHT. BRISK NW WINDS
SPREAD TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE SW MAINLAND THU. RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY/SW COAST
FRI NIGHT. STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
MORNING AND TO THE JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL TROUGH. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT WITH LOW COMPLEX TO THE NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 150 GALES 120 125 130 132 138 155 411 AND OFFSHORE
GULF.

RMC OCT 07