Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2007
Gale Warning 694, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 12, 2007, 11:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2007, 11:00 AM AKDT (19:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 14, 2007, 11:00 PM AKDT
- In force
- 60 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 FZAK62 PAFC 122215 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-131400- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 989 MB LOW AT 54N 164W WILL MOVE TO 53N 155W BY LATE FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE SAT. A 993 MB LOW AT 52N 163E WILL MOVE TO 54N 171E AND DEEPEN TO 989 MB BY NOON SAT. THIS LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN TO 978 MB BY LATE SAT NIGHT AT 55N 179E THEN MOVE EAST TO 55N 171W BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-131400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ412-131400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-131400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ414-131400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007 ...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. .SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
5 follow-up statements
000 FZAK62 PAFC 131159 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-140200- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 992 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168E WILL INTENSIFY TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TO 54N 158W BY MON MORNING. $$ PKZ411-140200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 35 TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ412-140200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. .TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ413-140200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ414-140200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. $$
000 FZAK62 PAFC 132321 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-141400- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 982 MB LOW NEAR 55N 167E WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR 53N 174E SUN MORNING. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 53N 178E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 175W AND STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB SUN MORNING THEN WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR 53N 159W MON MORNING. A 982 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 53N 166W SUN MORNING WILL MOVE TO 55N 147W AND STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB MON AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-141400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SOUTH OF 55N...SW TO W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 TO 30 FT. RAIN. ELSEWHERE...N TO NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-141400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NE TO E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN......NE TO N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$ PKZ413-141400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SW TO W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. $$ PKZ414-141400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 PM ADT SAT OCT 13 2007 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. .SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$
000 FZAK62 PAFC 141203 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-150200- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 981 MB LOW NEAR 55N 180 INTENSIFIES TO 976 MB SUN NIGHT NEAR 56N 160W. THIS LOW THEN INTENSIFIES TO 971 MB MON NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO 56N 150W. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SUN NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-150200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$ PKZ412-150200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-150200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. $$ PKZ414-150200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
000 FZAK62 PAFC 142259 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 PM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-151400- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 MB LOW 100 NM NEAR 56N 171W MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR 55N 163W SUN NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 160W WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 63N 176W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 61N 176W AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB TUE AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-151400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 PM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .MON THROUGH FRI...W TO N WIND 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-151400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 .TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. .MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ413-151400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 PM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ414-151400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 PM ADT SUN OCT 14 2007 ...GALE WARNING MONDAY... .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$
000 FZAK62 PAFC 151145 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 400 AM ADT MON OCT 15 2007 WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-160200- .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 981 MB LOW NEAR 55N 156W INTENSIFIES TO 974 MB MON NIGHT NEAR 53N 146W AND THEN MOVES EAST. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 63N 176W WEAKENS TO 994 MB TUE NIGHT NEAR 59N 172W. A 1012 MB LOW FORMS MON EVENING NEAR 49N 176E AND INTENSIFIES TO 991 MB TUE NIGHT NEAR 50N 160W. $$ PKZ411-160200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE 400 AM ADT MON OCT 15 2007 .TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ412-160200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT MON OCT 15 2007 .TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ413-160200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N 400 AM ADT MON OCT 15 2007 .TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. $$ PKZ414-160200- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W 400 AM ADT MON OCT 15 2007 .TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 12, 8:00 AM AKDT, 3 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 12, 8:00 AM AKDT, 3 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT FRI OCT 12 2007
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE NAM AND GFS...POSSIBLY
DUE TO RESOLUTION DIFFERENCES...MORE ON THIS BELOW. ON THE WEEKEND A
LOW TRAVERSING THE BERING SEA HAS BEEN (AND STILL IS) GIVING THE
MODELS A CASE OF THE WAFFLES.
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STEERING LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A SYSTEM IN THE ARCTIC
PORTION OF THE JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS...AND A SYSTEM IN THE
SUB-TROPICAL PORTION BOMBING OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE IS RIDING THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH AN OFFSHOOT PULLING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE WARM FRONT.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW IS PROVIDING AN INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE ONE LARGE LOW CENTER THAT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND PUSH
WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS TWO LOWS. ONE OFF THE
EAST COAST OF KODIAK AND THE OTHER EAST OF IT AT ABOUT 140 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE. IT STRENGTHENS THE FURTHER EAST LOW AND BRINGS IT
NORTHWESTWARD OVER MIDDLETON ISLAND TONIGHT AND DISSIPATES THE LOW
NEAR KODIAK. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE STORM CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS
THE STORMS SIX HOURS EARLIER. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS ON TO
SOMETHING HERE DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE COINT...THE NAM HAS NOT HAD A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD LATELY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE WHICH MODEL TO FOLLOW.
BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE SATURDAY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW GIVES A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES.
THE BERING SEA LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN
GIVING THE MODELS FITS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
RAY OF HOPE WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE NICELY
ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS
THE NAM AND UKMET ARE NOT SO AGREEABLE.
.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH MODEL STRUGGLES IN THE EARLIER PERIODS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS NOT VERY HIGH. PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY
ARE GOOD BETS.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
GALE WARNING 125 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
LUDWIG OCT 07The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 11:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Oct 12, 2:20 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 9 hr | |
| Oct 12, 7:20 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 16 hr | |
| Oct 12, 11:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 hr | |
| Oct 12, 11:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 26 hr | |
| Oct 12, 11:00 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Oct 12, 1:25 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 69 hr | |
| Oct 12, 2:50 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 8 hr | |
| Oct 12, 3:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 32 hr | |
| Oct 12, 3:00 PM AKDT | Storm Warning | AFC | 44 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.