Gale Warning 667, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 261128
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF GAMBELL WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES OVER NORTON SOUND WED NIGHT. A 977 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 973 MB AND MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF 
SHEMYA WED EVENING. THE LOW WEAKENS TO 979 MB AS IT MOVES TO 300 NM
NORTH OF ADAK THU AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 150 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM
AT 978 MB BY FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-270200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-270200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO SPEED ACROSS THE
REGION IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS A MATURE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW. A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO AROUND
YAKUTAT...TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE YUKON. AT THE SURFACE THERE
IS A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AS WELL AS INLAND OVER
THE YUKON. RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE COPPER BASIN WITH SHOWERS TO THE
WEST FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CONTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING BEHIND THE TROUGH AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET) INCLUDING NABESNA AND PAXSON. THERE IS
AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO COOK INLET. HEADING
WEST TO THE NEXT FEATURE IN LINE...THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN BERING. IT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. WITH
THIS CHANGE IN FLOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE ARE NOW TURNING
MORE TO THE NORTH AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY...TRACKING INLAND. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
IS ALSO CAUSING A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION TO SURFACE RIDGE ALONG AKPEN
AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...RESULTING IN DECENT PRESSURE RISES.
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE RISES AND INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET. THE
ISALLOBARIC MAX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SHORT-WAVE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPMENT. BACK OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING THERE ARE QUITE
A FEW BREAKS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOOKING EVEN
FARTHER WEST TO THE REGION EAST OF KOREA AND SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA THERE
IS ANOTHER HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A MODERATE SURFACE LOW
UNDERNEATH AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A DECENT JET MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT-WAVE OF ABOUT
130KT IS HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE CAUSE OF AMPLIFICATION OF
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH THEN TRANSLATES ON DOWN THE LINE
TO THE EASTERN BERING SHORT-WAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EXCELLENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THIS IS SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THE MODELS DO NOT USUALLY HANDLE THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN VERY WELL.
ANYWAY...BECAUSE OF THIS CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS HIGH AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE SHORT-WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. COMBINATION OF
CLEARING SKIES AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COPPER BASIN WHERE
THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. DO NOT THINK LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A CONSIDERABLE AFFECT ON LEE SIDE
PRECIP. IN ADDITION ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE SO IT WONT TAKE
A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIP. THEREFORE...EXPECT SHOWERS
TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
QUICKLY TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY MORNING...SO ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN A BIT TONIGHT WITH A
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL COOLING. SO SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO 200 FEET OR SO.
FAIR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING TO THE
BERING SEA WILL THEN TRACK TO KODIAK ISLAND LATE THURSDAY AND TO THE
REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY. WITH LOW PROGGED TO TRACK TO BRISTOL BAY
THERE WILL BE A STRONG EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO EXPECT STRONG
TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING. WILL BEGIN TO INDICATE
THESE WINDS IN THE NEW FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BARRIER JET TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GALES
AND WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER IN TIME BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER
TO UP WINDS TO STORMS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN BERING
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAKER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW AROUND NORTHERN BERING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT LESS WIDESPREAD AREAL
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE UPON THE COAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIKE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THERE WILL BE SOME
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES. HOWEVER AS
THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO SOUTH...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND AKPEN AS SHORT-WAVE MOVES EASTWARD.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN BERING/AKPEN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WESTERLIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO WEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THE LOW WILL GET WRAPPED UP ON THURSDAY WITH
A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
WILL UP FORECAST WINDS TO STORM FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...VERY PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC FLOW CONTINUES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A LITTLE BIT COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY PULLED DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS EACH SYSTEM COMES
THROUGH...SO FREEZING LEVELS MAY DROP A BIT FURTHER.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN DONT SEE ANY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO BRING SNOW TO AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 171 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 07