Gale Warning 666, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AND
MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF GAMBELL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING A FRONT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 976 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BE
IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT 978 MB ON THURSDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH AND WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON SEP 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT VARIATION
WITH THE NAM AFTER 36 HOURS WHERE IT SHOWS THE LOW AS ABOUT 3 DEGREES
FURTHER WEST.  GIVEN THE LACK OF FORECAST IMPACT THIS IS NOT A MAJOR
FUNCTION.  GFS STILL THE MODEL OF CHOICE GIVEN ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAJOR FEATURE THIS MORNING IS A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
BERING SEA.  THE POLAR FRONT JET IS HIGHLY ZONAL IN NATURE...FLOWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE AOR.  AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE JET THEY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THEN DISSIPATE AS THEY LOSE MOST OF THEIR UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.  THE JET REFLECTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS STRONG WINDS AT
MOST LEVELS.  WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING THE FLOW
OVER THE MAINLAND IS SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL LEVELS WHICH MEANS WET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST ZONES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND
MORE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION TO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY
ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. A QUICK BREAK WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY.  WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY SO ONLY
SMALL CRAFTS EXPECTED IN THE MARINES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THIS REGION AS
WELL.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AK PEN AND THE MAINLAND. WINDS
ARE STRONGER BEHIND THE FRONT THAN AHEAD OF IT SO GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR MARINES EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR...BUT ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE ALASKA REGION.  THIS WILL CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE MAINLAND BRIEFLY AND PERHAPS LET THINGS DRY OUT A
LITTLE.  HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF THIS RIDGE IS ANOTHER MAJOR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERING LATE
THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO MOVE INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 07