Gale Warning 662, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231244 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

CORRECTED ZONES 129 AND 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 990 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO
994 MB AND MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-240200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING NE 35
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS TO 15 KT. SEAS TO 3 FT...HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. SHOWERS.  
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE EVENING AND VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.  
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING N TO W 35 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISHING
TO NW 20 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 232330
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAKUTAT MON MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MON THROUGH
TUE.

$$

PKZ120-241400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING NW 20 MPH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT TOWARD MORNING. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TONIGHT...SW 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT SEP 22 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE NAM MOVES THE LOW IN THE GULF ONSHORE NEAR SITKA WHILE THE
GFS TAKE IT INLAND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH NEAR GUSTAVUS MONDAY
MORNING. THIS DIFFERENCE SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR SYSTEMS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND A NEW UPPER LOW
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVING TOWARD THE BERING SEA. A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MIRRORS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF COLD
BAY.

AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE CLOSELY RELATED
WITH THE UPPER FEATURES AND WILL MOVE EAST WITH THEM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR.
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL FLATTEN AS IT RUNS INTO THE STATIONARY
LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA SUNDAY. THE OTHER UPPER LOW EAST OF
KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL.
MODELS ARE STILL MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT THEN EAST INTO
NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND, THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND WATERS
THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE MORE
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TONIGHT.

A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM IN THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEYS, KENAI PENINSULA AND
ANCHORAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE AREAS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA APPEARS TO BE SMALLER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED
FOR. MOST OF IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND
TAPER TO SHOWERS SUNDAY.

THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL MOVE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA MONDAY. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BOTH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL DRIFT INTO THE
YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST ALASKA
UNDER A PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN THE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RAIN OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM..176
         GALE..120, 130, 132, 138, 155, 170, 172, 175, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 07