Gale Warning 651, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191123
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WED EVENING. 
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. 
$$

PKZ120-200200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING...E WIND 35 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT BY LATE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-200200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 19 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH EVEN THE
NAM HAVING LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN JUST PAST 100 HOURS...MAINLY
WITH WHERE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ENDS UP.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE GFS FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN. FOR THE EASTERN
DOMAIN...PREFER THE NAM DUE TO SUPERIOR TERRAIN INFLUENCED SURFACE
FEATURES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 150 WEST LONGITUDE...WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY (CONSOLIDATED) JET
POINTED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE EXPECTED TO SEPARATE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALLOWING FOR LESS VIGOROUS SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...MAIN WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED WITH A
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT (WHERE COLD...WARM...AND OCCLUDED FRONTS
MEET). AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM CORDOVA THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...WITH A HIGH WIND
WARNING IN THE LATTER AREA.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...DEEP LOW WILL FILL AND MOVE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR DAYS THREE AND FOUR AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS SPLIT AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE MAIN LAND. A
POSSIBLE LARGE BERING STORM FOR DAYS FIVE AND SIX (SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY)...BUT BY THIS TIME THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 129 130 140 150 155 160 165
                      170 171 172 175 176 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 07