Gale Warning 640, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 160002
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 350 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DRIFT EAST AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 44N 154E WILL DEEPEN
TO 975 MB AND MOVE TO AROUND 100 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WITH 961 MB CENTER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 969 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 100 NM
NORTH OF ADAK DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
$$

PKZ150-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-161400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.

.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-161400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 15 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT FRI SEP 14 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS. AFTER THAT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WORTH NOTING. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS WITH
THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HOW IT PROCEEDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION COMES FROM THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH
BRINGS THIS LOW TOWARD CAPE SPENCER.
THE OTHER BIG FEATURE TO WATCH IS A VERY STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL BE VERY STRONG AND IN THE
BERING SEA. HOWEVER THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL DIFFERENT IN HOW
THE LOW WILL MOVE AND WHAT THE STRENGTH WILL BE. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT WHICH IS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION BUT ECMWF MAY BE THE BEST
SOLUTION AS IT IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM IN STRENGTH AND NOT TOO FAR OFF
FROM THE GFS MODELS MEAN POSITION WHEN LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW ENTERING THE GULF IS
STRENGTHENING AS EXPECTED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA OFFSHORE REGION THOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA BUT PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF YAKUTAT SATURDAY MORNING
AND THEN PROCEED SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD CAPE SPENCER AND WEAKEN.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW THAT CAME THOUGH MAINLAND ALASKA A FEW DAYS
AGO PERSIST IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE BERING SEA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND FOG
ONE WOULD EXPECT IN THIS PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EAST. THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BUT MAY MISS IT DUE TO THE ENERGY IN THE STORM MOVING TOO FAR TO THE
EAST. KODIAK SHOULD MOSTLY AVOID PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
IN FACT SEE SOME CLEARING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN
THAT AREA. EXPECT MORE COASTAL FOG IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
LARGE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST LOW OF THE SEASON SO FAR
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FORECAST TO DROP TO 960 MB OR LESS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO
THE ENTIRE BERING SEA AREA BY MONDAY. INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL SEE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOW WILL HELP AMPLIFY A RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 07