Gale Warning 636, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 111448 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

CORRECTED 120 AND 132 HEADLINES

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN WED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN GULF BY WED NIGHT TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK
IN TO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
$$

PKZ120-120200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 25 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SE WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 4
FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT.  SE WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 4 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

$$

PKZ130-120200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK.
GUSTS TO SE 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK IN THE
MORNING. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO
25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 120004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN GULF 
WED AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND WED NIGHT. 
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT 
AND THU.
$$

PKZ120-121400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-121400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT SOUTH OF NINILCHIK. GUSTS TO
SE 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 9 FT SOUTH OF
NINILCHIK. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
NINILCHIK...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GUSTS TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
140 PM ADT MON SEP 10 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WEATHER MAKER THIS MORNING IS A STRONG
LOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LAST NIGHT AND THIS
CENTRAL BERING THIS MORNING TO ABOUT 57N 175W WITH AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB. STORM FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TO THE PRIBILOFS. THIS FRONT HAS NOW CROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND IS RIGHT
OVER DUTCH HARBOR...TRACKING EASTWARD. THE OLD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
THAT HAD BEEN SPINNING OVER THE BERING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT
LOW HAS SLOWLY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING AND IS BERING ABSORBED INTO
THE CIRCULATION OF THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THERE IS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF THIS WEAKENING LOW RESULTING IN
35 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
ALOFT AND A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HERE IS A STRONG UPPER JET HEADED
SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND BACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY
CLASSICAL SYSTEM STRUCTURE WITH DRY SLOT RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS. THE OCCLUSION HAS ALSO WRAPPED FULLY AROUND
THE LOW CENTER. THE JET HAS HELPED TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE BERING AND BUILD A RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FRONT/UPPER
SHORT-WAVES THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION INTO CANADA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THERE IS STILL SOME RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COPPER BASIN
ZONE. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST. AS SKIES
CLEARED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING FOG AND  STRATUS QUICKLY
FORMED...ESPECIALLY IN COOK INLET AND OTHER COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS
SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW GENERALLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF BERING SEA SYSTEM. GFS IS AN OUTLIER
IN DEPICTING A STRONG SHORT-WAVE SPINNING OUT FROM NEAR THE LOW
CENTER TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKING TO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND CURVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
AND LARGE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK
WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXPECT MORE STRATUS/FOG TO FORM TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGING ALOFT. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND A LITTLE BIT OF A SURFACE GRADIENT TOWARD MORNING...SO
EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED A BIT. EASTERN SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE
COPPER BASIN AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL RADIATE EFFICIENTLY WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP...LIKELY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BERING
FRONT TRACKING TO THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG JET
OUT WEST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TO THE POINT THAT FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL SLOW A BIT AND UPPER THROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
MEAN FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...MEANING LEE SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE WILL SEE MUCH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST PROVIDING MANY OF THESE AREAS WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE NORMAL EASTERLY GAP WINDS. WITH GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THIS GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BE INCREASED WITH THE NEW
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EMBEDDED WITH SHORT-WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA COAST AND THEN THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INLAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG LOW WHICH WILL SIT
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE GREATLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF
TO THE BERING STRAIT. EXPECT PRECIP CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR TO
SOUTHCENTRAL...THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
FLOW WILL SHIFT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS NORTHWARD...SO
WIDESPREAD RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED
PERIOD WHERE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT. HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO LOOK
FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE AS MEAN TROUGH SHIFTS TO GULF
WITH SOME RIDGING OVER THE BERING. GFS INDICATES THIS RIDGE WILL
BE A LOT FLATTER THAN IT INDICATED IN PAST RUNS...LEAVING BERING
REGION OPEN TO STORMS BE BLOWN IN BY THE WESTERLIES. GENERAL TREND
FOR THE END OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WET ALONG GULF COAST WITH
SHOWERS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND. DRIER OUT WEST WITH NO MAJOR
STORMS CURRENTLY IN SITE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 160 180. GALES 130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175
                               176 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 07