Gale Warning 616, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 042354
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW 165 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL WILL DISSIPATE WED. A 986 MB
LOW 275 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WED MORNING WILL MOVE TO 75 NM EAST OF
SHEMYA AT 985 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-051400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-051400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12
FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 12
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
645 AM ADT TUE SEP 4 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...12Z IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY FEATURE
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE LOW CENTERED OVER THE AKPEN WITH AN
ELONGATED OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN KENAI WITH RADAR SHOWING A
BROAD FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP PREPARING TO MOVE NORTH INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION (UVM) ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW IN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 300MB JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES IS
VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING EAST OF
KODIAK CITY...THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY PICKING UP THIS FEATURE
THIS MORNING. THE STRONG UVM HAS EVEN GENERATED A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY BAY OVER THE
LAST HOUR. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY NEARING GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

BACK TOWARDS THE ORIGINAL LOW CENTER...SHOWERS ARE ROTATING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHILE STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ARE IMPACTING THE
WESTERN AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS DROPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET THAT
EXTENDS BACK INTO EASTERN ASIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SAID...THERE IS CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER THEIR HANDLING OF THE LOW IN THE GULF. NEITHER THE
NAM OR THE GFS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION THAT
HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. GIVEN THE OVERALL
SCALE OF THE SYSTEM...THIS INITIALIZATION ISSUE SHOULD NOT HAVE MAJOR
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAVING TO BUMP UP
THE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CYCLOGENESIS.

THE OTHER MODEL ISSUE TO NOTE IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FROM THE SOUTH ON THU. THE 12Z RUN FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN HAD
DISPENSED WITH THE SYSTEM...PREFERRING TO KEEP IT IN THE MID
LATITUDES. THIS WAS ALSO THE UNANIMOUS CONCLUSION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OTHER MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS. GIVEN THIS
AGREEMENT...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO FALL INTO
LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS RUN FOR THU AND BEYOND. THE CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED BY FRI NIGHT ONCE THE OLF LOW IS OUT OF
THE PICTURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG
THE GULF COAST TODAY BRINGING PLENTY OF RAIN. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DROP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS WITH THE
WESTERN KENAI ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU BEING IN THE RAIN SHADOW. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND THE WINDS
DIMINISH SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY
IN THE RAIN SHADOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ON WED AS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW MOVE INLAND AND A
BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU AS MOISTURE FROM THE OLD LOW
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND FLOW REMAINS LIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...WINDS ALONG THE AKPEN WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS BRISTOL BAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING WILL BRING RAIN...THOUGH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...TO THE
PRIBILOFS AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AKPEN TONIGHT GIVING THEM ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM KEEPS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
DRY...BUT CLOUDY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA TONIGHT
AND A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED BRINGING RAIN AND
GALES. THIS LOW QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST ON THU...SHUNTED FORTH BY A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG 45N WITH THE FRONT BRINGING
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM IN ALASKA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COURTESY OF
A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAKS THAT CREATE NEW LOWS THAT ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE IN THE BERING SEA...ESTABLISHING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THERE BY THE WEEKEND WITH WET AND WINDY WEATHER THE
RULE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS A RESULT OF THE SERIES OF LOWS MOVING
INTO THE BERING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING ACROSS MAINLAND SW
AK WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
THE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA SETS UP BROAD
LONG FETCH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THE
WEEKEND...SIGNALING THE POSSIBLE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
BUT MILD WEATHER THAT LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 150 155 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

WOOD SEP 07