Gale Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051241
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 65 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT AT 993 MB AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES ON THE PACIFIC SIDE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
ON THE PACIFIC SIDE...12 FT ON THE BERING SIDE. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT ON
THE BERING SIDE. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI JAN 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 AM AST THU JAN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...

..SUMMARY..
TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE SNOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND SNOW AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF  THE LOW. THIS STORM WILL BE
A CONCERN AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS MORNING OFF THE
EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...TAKING A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURES...MEANING PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

..MODELS..
IN THE EAST...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT HAVE A SLIGHT
PREFERANCE OF GFS OVER NAM/WRF. IN THE WEST...GFS AND UKMET BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL. FAVORING THE GFS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM SINCE IT
SPLITS THE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BELIEVE THIS TO BE
THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION BY FRI.

..FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE..
EXPECT SNOW TO END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 700 AND 500 MB TROUGHS
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME RADITIONAL COOLING. SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...MEANING A DRIER AND COLDER
WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR INLAND AREAS. SOME OF THE UPCOMING LOW
PRESSURES COULD BRUSH AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS PALMER AND
ANCHORAGE...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING...A BREAK FROM THE MAJOR
SNOWSTORMS IS IN STORE. COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL STILL GET
BRUSHED BY THE LOWS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH NOTHING MAJOR IS EXPECTED. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS
THROUGH GAPS IN THE TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN.

..FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND..
GENERALLY VERY QUIET AND VERY COLD WEATHER TO PERSIST FOR THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. SOME SNOW FALLING AROUND MCGRATH TODAY ON THE FAR
WEST SIDE OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATING LOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT THIS SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME

AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 45 BELOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNINGS.

...FORECAST FOR THE BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A STRONG LOW IS BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAINLY ON ITS BACK SIDE. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IS PRESENT ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW ALONG THE CHAIN. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS...EXITING THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187
         BLIZZARD WATCH 181 185
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 171 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 130 132 138 140 141 150 160
                              165 179 185

RNW JAN 07