Gale Warning 569, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 232351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI
THEN WEAKEN TO 1006 MB 100 NM SOUTH OF SITKA SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT.
$$

PKZ120-241400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 5 FT SOUTH OF
SEAL ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
SEAL ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 23 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 241123
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH OF SITKA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY.
$$

PKZ120-250200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-250200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE OF BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. NW OF BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-250200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 24 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED AUG 22 2007

.ANALYSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH A COUPLE
SURFACE LOWS IN THE MIX AS WELL. A LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING. STRONG JET WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND A GOOD
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AS WELL. THE CURRENT FLOW OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS SOUTHERLY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE COVERING
THESE AREAS. WINDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG CURRENTLY...BUT THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE GULF. THIS STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL DRAG THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GULF THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND UPPER LEVELS...
MODELS INITIALIZED OK. EURO AND NCEP MODELS AND HAVE CONSOLIDATED ON
THE GULF LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY ONCE AGAIN
FOLLOWS WITH THE SPEED OF THE SECOND LOW COMING ACROSS THE BERING SEA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ALL OTHER FEATURES
ALONG AND PUSH THE ALASKA REGION INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON THE FRONT SIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN MOVING INTO THE
GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE GULF FROM THIS FEATURE AS WELL. THE WAVE WILL
HELP SWING THE BERING LOW INTO THE GULF. THE GULF LOW WILL SIT AND
FILL THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE GULF. MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WILL ERODE
MAKING A VERY ZONAL PATTERN WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG JET FROM ASIA
THROUGH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
IN ON THE SPEED OF THE NEXT LOW. THE NEW LOW WILL EVENTUALLY RIDE TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY PUSHING THE GULF LOW TO THE PANHANDLE.
THE LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF MID NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING BEHIND THE LOW FROM SUNDAY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
THE WEAK LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING CREATING SOME SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST STARTING TONIGHT. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS LOW COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL BERING WILL GET
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR A BIT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRONG FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FROM A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA.
THE FRONT WILL PROCEED TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WEAKENING THE ENTIRE TIME. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
HOWEVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS PUSHED OUT OF EASTERN BERING FRIDAY BUT
RETURNING BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL END OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT THIS TIME.

WESTERN ALASKA...
THE LARGE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SPREADING SHOWERS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST STARTING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE GULF. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FRINGES WHERE SUN BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

SOUTH CENTRAL...
LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STACKED UNDER THE
UPPER LOW TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY IN
THE SAME POSITION OF THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY
FARTHER INLAND AS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW WHEN IT
WEAKENS. THE LOW WILL PULL OFF SATURDAY WITH PRECIP WANING EVERYWHERE
AND SKIES BECOMING MUCH LESS CLOUDY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LARGE STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE GULF BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL
SURROUND THE LOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW WITH ANOTHER FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.

THE GULF LOW LEAVES THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE WANE.
SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS OVER BY SUNDAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT SUFFICIENTLY. THE
NEXT LOW TO ENTER THE GULF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND PRECIP FOR KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN AUG 07