Gale Warning 528, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 011042
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 999 MB LOW 300 NM WEST
OF SAINT PAUL WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY TONIGHT. A 999 MB
LOW 90 NM EAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 215 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND DIMINISH. A 998 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 450 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AT 993 MB AND THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM BAY AT
995 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-020200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007


.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-020200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED AUG 1 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MOST DOMINANT FEATURE IS A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA NEAR SHEMYA. A FRONT EXTENDING
WELL OUT FROM THIS LOW IS MOVING INLAND. A SECONDARY FRONT IS IN THE
CENTRAL BERING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MAINLAND LIFTING
SHOWERS OUT OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
FROM THE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS OF THE MOVEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT POSITIONING NOT HANDLED WELL OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION
ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PAST THIS TIME FRAME...THERE EXISTS
A LARGE DISAGREEMENT OVER THE PROGRESSION AND DEPTH OF THE NEXT LOW
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS DEMONSTRATED A
SIGNIFICANT FLIP FLOP. PREVIOUS 2 GFS RUNS DROVE THE LOW INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND ABOUT 20 MB DEEPER. CURRENT RUN DRIVES A FAST
MOVING LOW THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY. THIS AGREES WITH THE
ECMWF. ALSO...MOST OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO
EASTERN BERING THURSDAY WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING UNDERNEATH
AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BACK IN THE BERING
SATURDAY THEN EVENTUALLY SWING INTO THE MAINLAND SUNDAY. DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES TO RIP THROUGH WITH THE LARGE
UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE BERING. THE FIRST WAVE IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE UP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE. AIDED BY GOOD
JET SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO BE THE RULE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH SHOWERS MORE PREVALENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE MAINLAND. A SECONDARY FRONT TO PUSH
INLAND TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. NOT MUCH JET
SUPPORT WITH THESE TWO FEATURES RIGHT...SO PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT HEAVY. THE BETTER JET SUPPORT IS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY. THE JET SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIER OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW TO ROTATE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY AS WELL.
DO EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT LEAST. OUTSIDE OF TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

BERING/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING TO SWING INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF
THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE CENTRAL
BERING AND ALEUTIANS THEN TO THE EASTERN BERING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEHIND THIS FEATURE
THURSDAY. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BESIDES JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER LOW TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS RIDING A STRONG JET MAX. THEREFORE...WE
EXPECT A SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS OUTSIDE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
BERING. SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE THOUGH FOR THE MAINLAND...WITH WET
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY TOWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH POTENTIALLY VERY WET SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP...COOK
INLET UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY HAS THE CHANCE OF GETTING MAJOR RAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JUL 07