Gale Warning 527, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 311117
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-010200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. AREAS 
OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AREAS 
OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-010200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-010200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE JUL 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM ADT MON JUL 30 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SWIRLING
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FAR OUT AHEAD INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT TO MIN GALE WINDS(AS SEEN IN LATEST
QUIKSCAT PLOT) ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAKER UPPER
LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT. THERE IS RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED FROM THE GULF TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE YUKON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG VORT-MAX MOVING ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE COOK INLET TO SUSITNA VALLEY
CORRIDOR...INDICATING GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THIS AREA. THE 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL STABILIZED OVERNIGHT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS STARTING TO
BUILD IN THESE AREAS...SO THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COPPER BASIN ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS STILL
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM COOK INLET SOUTH TO KODIAK ISLAND...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. GFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW OPERATIONAL SOLUTION IS EXTREMELY DIFFERENT THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTION FROM 72 HOURS ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE ONE ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. AS THIS TRACKS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT EXPECT
INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN COOK INLET TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...EXPECT HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE TALKEET MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE SHOWERS. RADAR ESTIMATED
PRECIP...WHICH WAS UNDERONE AT SEVERAL REPORTING STATIONS IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY...SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WITH
A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO BE
AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND EXPECT
GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT...SO RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH UP
TO AN INCH OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
UP THE POPS FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE WAS A SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY...BUT RIVER AND STREAMS WERE VERY LOW TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WERE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND DONT
ANTICPATE ANY TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK ON TUESDAY WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE UPPER WAVES EMENATING FROM BERING LOW MOVE
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS.
WITH RIDGING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT MUCH LESS
PRECIP BUT LOTS OF CLOUDS. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DEVIATIONS MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT CALL ON THURSDAY. IF REMNANTS OF BERING LOW MOVE TO
SOUTHCENTRAL IT WILL BE A VERY WET DAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL REACH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE VORT-MAX WILL BE CONCENTRATED
FROM INLAND BRISTOL BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE
STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. UPPER WAVES MOVING IN
FROM THE BERING WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND THE BERING SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND STALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING LOTS OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING ALONG THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW/LARGE COLD CORE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY BEYOND BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE BERING EXPECT
CONTINUED WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SHOVING UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD TO CANADA AS SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE TO
MOVE UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MEAN LONG-WAVE THROUGH
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN ACTIVE(MEANING WET) WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 07