Gale Warning 523, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE JUL 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...UKMET AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE MODELS OF CHOICE.
THEY BOTH INITIALIZED THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WELL AND HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND STILL CANNOT
GET A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICAL CUTOFF LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED
INTO THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. THE MAIN CENTER WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING ALONG THE JET TO THE EAST
JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
AREAS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  A RIDGE
OVER THE BERING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WED EVENING BEFORE THE LOW GETS SWEPT UP IN THE JET. A WEAK RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THIS LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ONE SOUTH OF KODIAK. THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
WILL STRENGTHEN BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
WATERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY WITH SOUTH TO EAST FLOW THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WIND GRADIENT IS NOT THAT TIGHT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST TERRAIN SO EVEN ANCHORAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN AS
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE MINIMAL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH
NORTHEAST GAPS AND CHANNELED AREAS LIKE SHELIKOF STRAIT AND COOK
INLET. CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS..DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DRYING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL THU
THROUGH SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND AND AS THE GULF LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 120 130 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JUL 07