Gale Warning 509, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 270106 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

AMENDED ZONES 165 170 171

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW 170 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 180 NM WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 1000 MB THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY.
$$

PKZ150-271400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-271400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-271400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
500 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-271400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
500 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-271400-
UNALASKA BAY
500 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-271400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-271400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-271400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO E 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-271400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE JUN 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN EASTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH FRI. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE OUT WEST WITH LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. NAM/UKMET/GFS POSITIONS INITIALIZED WELL...NAM WAS A
LITTLE TOO DEEP ON PRESSURE THOUGH. NAM AND UKMET MODELS TEND TO GO
WITH ONE DEEPER CENTER AND MOVE IT TO NUNIVAK ISLAND THU MORNING. THE
GFS GOES WITH TWO WEAKER CENTERS. ALTHOUGH FEEL THAT THE GFS FORECAST
OF TWO CENTERS IS PROBABLY A MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION...GFS ENSEMBLE
SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE WENT
CLOSER TO NAM/UMKET SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH EARLIER
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH HANDLING OF LOWS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOVEMENT
AND TIMING OF FRONTAL TROUGH IS SIMILAR IN MODELS.

.ANALYSIS
.EAST...GENERAL PATTERN IS FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STABILITY INDICES INDICATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION LIKELY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL NORTH OF KENAI PEN AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THU. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY...TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN. MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF BROKE UP
FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT IT WILL REFORM TONIGHT.
CONCERN IS THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...MAY SEE A WEAK
MARINE PUSH UP COOK INLET OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF IT DOES
OCCUR...THEN COULD DELAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.
EXPECT FAIRLY BRISK SEABREEZES ALONG COASTAL LOCALS OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...SO MAY SEE STRENGTHENING
SEABREEZES OVER COOK INLET AND KNIK WINDS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

.WEST...A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH COMPLEX OVER
THE ALEUTIANS. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATES THAT LOW CENTER HAS PUSHED NORTH OF ADAK AROUND NOON TODAY.
EXPECT CENTER SHOULD HOLD IN THE 990S AS IT MOVES TOWARD SW
AK...CENTER LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO THE UPPER 990S/LOWER 1000S MB THU
NEAR NUNIVAK. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF ISLANDS MOVES TO NEAR THE DELTA COAST/WESTERN AK
PEN WED AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SW
AK/EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT/THU. EXPECT WINDS AND MIXING IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT AND WITH LOW CENTER WILL BREAK UP EXTENSIVE LOW
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/SW COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AND FRI.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THIS EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHOULD BE MORE STABLE WITH COOLING TEMPS IN LOWER LAYERS AND WARNING
AT 500MB WED/THU. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE OVER INTERIOR SW AK FRI/SAT
WITH COLD BREAKS AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JUN 07