Gale Warning 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 271158 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAINT GEORGE THIS MORNING WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON. A LARGE 985
MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 410 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON AND TO
350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA LATE MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-280200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 27 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT MAY 26 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS.

.UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. ELONGATED AREA OF REDUCED
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. AND BROAD ZONAL
FLOW BETWEEN 40N AND 50N. PATTERN SHIFTS SIGNIFICANTLY BY 60 HOURS.
A CUTOFF H540 LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 50N 150W CAUSING BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. CONTRAST OF RIDGE WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA CONTINUES TO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN AND KNIK
ARMS. GRADIENT SLACKENS A LITTLE THIS MORNING BUT RETIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE INTERIOR
THERMAL TROUGH.
SMALL 1002 MB LOW APPROX 45 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY IS POORLY
RECOGNIZED BY THE MODELS BUT IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN MAINLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY EVENING. KODIAK ISLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT RAINS INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO THE THERMAL TROUGH.
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN MODELS HANDLING OF SMALL 1001 MB LOW
NOW APPROX 210 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL. FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE TO JUST
NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN NIGHT AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING NEAR ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.
OUT WEST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING. STRATUS AND FOG PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH 60 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND BEGINNING AT 60 HOURS WILL ACT TO STEER MORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF AND TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. NEXT WEEK
EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND WET.
ALSO LARGE 979 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW PROGGED TO SKIM JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF ITS WELL ORGANIZED FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAY 07