Gale Warning 483, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231818 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

UPDATED ZONE 121 132 138 140 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE ALONG
THE GULF COAST WED AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD
WILL DISSIPATE OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT WED AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-240200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-240200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-240200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-240200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-240200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
615 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-240200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-240200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
$$

PKZ140-240200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-240200-
KACHEMAK BAY
1015 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT 
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 232304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WEAKENS TO 1000 MB FRI
AFTERNOON NEAR COLD BAY AND THEN DISSIPATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT. A
FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE WED NIGHT AND REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-241400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT AFTERNOON S WIND 
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 


$$

PKZ125-241400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-241400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-241400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-241400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-241400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED MAY 23 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS POORLY INITIALIZED THE  MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS NO BETTER. COMPARISON OF MODEL FCST LOW
POSITIONS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS
MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON BOTH POSITIONS AND STRENGTHS OF PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER
JUST NORTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL COMPLICATE
WIND FORECASTS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
MODEL BEHAVIOR OVER BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS OKAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA HAS ONLY A VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION. BOTH FEATURES WILL DISSIPATE VICINITY DUTCH
HARBOR BY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER WESTERN SHELIKOF STRAIT. BOTH WILL DISSIPATE OVER
VICINITY KING SALMON BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE FAR ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA BUT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY LESS ORGANIZED.
NEXT UP IS A MODERATE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 47N 162W. THE LOW
IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DUE NORTHWARD...CROSSING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS GULF OF ALASKA
AND GULF COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. STEADY RAINS TODAY ACROSS
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND AS REMNANTS OF OLD OCFNT ARE PUSHED INLAND. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS TODAY. CHANNELED WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE
GRADIENT RETIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT.
THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS.
WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS FOR ALASKA PENINSULA...EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES TRACKING MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS.
WESTERN BERING AND FAR ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
LOW STRATUS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED
BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA AND BY A LARGE
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
KEEPING THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. LONG RANGE PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN ALASKA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAY 07