Gale Warning 472, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141659 AAC
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
900 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

UPDATED ZONE 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MON MORNING. A 1001 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
REMAINS STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES TUE AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW INTENSIFIES TO 995 MB TUE NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
900 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
650 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 150029
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES MON NIGHT AND TUE. AN EAST PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TUE AFTERNOON AT 999 MB
AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 993 MB AS IT MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON MAY 14 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF AK AND
WEST COAST OF LOWER 48. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW RESIDES WELL SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND WITH A WAVE COMING ONSHORE NEAR KODIAK. A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL BERING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS MAKING LITTLE
EASTWARD HEADWAY AGAINST THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO LOCATED
EAST OF SE AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK AND THE SHORTWAVE COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING. THEY ARE ALSO
REASONABLE IN HAVING THE MAIN LOW WEAKEN IN PLACE...TRAPPED BETWEEN
THE TWO BLOCKING RIDGES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
A LOW PRESENTLY DEVELOPING AROUND 40N. IT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF TUE AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF ON WED.
SINCE THE BLOCKING RIDGES SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF MOVING FROM THEIR
CURRENT POSITIONS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE LOW WILL THEN ROTATE
INTO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FOR WHAT MAY BE A REPLAY OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST SOLUTION IS A BLEND TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH DISSIPATES AGAINST THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE BERING RIDGE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD BY MID WEEK.

OVER SW AK...PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLANK
OF THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SOME CLEARING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL RIDGE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LESS FAVORABLE TUESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WED.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND TUES. COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAIN WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DOWNSLOPING TODAY
NORTHWEST OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT ACROSS INTO THE WESTERN
KENAI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW CUTS OFF WED AND THE
REGIME CHANGES TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM INLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
EASTERN GULF LOW ROTATES AROUND UNTIL IT IS PLACED SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SW AK CAN EXPECT A
REPEAT OF MOIST FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION INLAND. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE CAN ALSO
EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION INLAND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 07