Gale Warning 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 082300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEAKENS AS IT REACHES THE
CENTRAL BERING WED AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WED NIGHT AND MERGES INTO A 1005 MB LOW THU
AFTERNOON 100 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI.

$$

PKZ150-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND 
PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE 
WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE 
WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-091400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 8 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON MAY 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z NAM AND GFS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 42
HOURS...THEREAFTER GFS MAINTAINS A DEEPER GULF OF ALASKA LOW.  SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE DEVELOPING  SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
BERING BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING. OVER ALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUING INTO BRISTOL BAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS EVENING
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE NAM CAPE IS WEAK FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HENCE EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.  THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME COOLER AIR MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

A SHORT LIVED RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY...NEXT
FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS TENDS TO MOVE SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO BRISTOL
BAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING.  IF THIS
VERIFIES...LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS TO FAR SOUTH TO
HAVE ANY IMPACT EXCEPT ON KODIAK ISLAND AND AK PEN...THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MAY 07