Gale Warning 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 301836 CCB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1040 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

CORRECTED THE SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW FAR SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC MON. A SECONDARY 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 290 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF SITKA MON EVENING AND THEN MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-010200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ121-010200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ125-010200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ129-010200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-010200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-010200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1000 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ140-010200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ141-010200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302328
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ120-011400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-011400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-011400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT OUT OF VALDEZ ARM. SEAS 4 FT...WITH HIGHER WAVES TO 7 FT
IN VALDEZ ARM. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NORTHEAST WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT
OUT OF VALDEZ ARM. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-011400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-011400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-011400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-011400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM ADT MON APR 30 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PREVIOUS UKMET RUNS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SECONDARY LOW IN THE GULF THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH THAT SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OF AK AND A THERMAL TROUGH
IN THE INTERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY WED NIGHT WITH
THE MAIN CORE OF THE JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES UNTIL ONE MOVES INTO THE BERING ON TUE. WEAK
WAA IN SOUTHCENTRAL TUE AND WED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PENN. A LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM RUSSIA
TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE BERING. EXPECT AFTERNOON
KNIK ARM WIND IN THE EAST WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
MAT-SU BECAUSE OF THE WINDS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY TSTORMS IN THE
EAST UNTIL WED ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY. MAY STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTORM ACROSS THE KUSKOWKIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND INTO KODIAK TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK ALONG THE COPPER RIVER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN AND MORE
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR TSTORMS WILL BE
BRIEF AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF ON SAT. A RIDGE IN THE
WEST WILL DIMINISH SHOWERS IN THE BERING BUT BRING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BY MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW APR 07