Gale Warning 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251119
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTH
OF CORDOVA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN STRENGTH.  A 990 MB
LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE
TO 200 NM SOUTH OF ATTU THURSDAY NIGHT AS 985 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN... WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 260120 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

CORRECTED FOR ZONE 170 172

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A LOW MOVING INTO IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WED EVENING WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY FRI. A 980 MB LOW 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF SHEMYA
AT 970 MB FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-261400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
500 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
500 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT TUE APR 24 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON WEAKENING LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK AND SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE IS ALSO
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LOW RIDING THE UPPER JET EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER 60 HOURS WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW...HOWEVER THE MEAN POSITION IS SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST.
FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION.

THERE ARE VERY LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING TO ALEUTIANS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. DUE TO THIS INCONSISTENCY THE PAST TWO SHIFTS DECIDED
TO STICK WITH SOLUTION FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO UNTIL MODELS CONVERGED
ON A SOLUTION. FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD THE
NEW GFS SOLUTION IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN FORECAST FROM
THE SHORT-TERM TO THE LONG-TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A NEAR ZONAL 150 KT JET EXTENDS FROM
JAPAN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 50N AND THEN SPLITS
AS IT HEADS INTO WESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS ONE
NOTABLE BUCKLE IN THE JET BETWEEN 170W AND 170E WHERE A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IS TRACKING EAST WITH A DEVELOPING LOW AT THE SURFACE. A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES ALMOST ALL OF ALASKA...EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN ASIA TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA...WHILE A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE BEAFORT SEA. ANY
SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE JET ARE PUSHED NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THIS RIDGE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ARE SEVERAL
CLOSED LOWS...MOST NOTABLY THE ONE ALONG THE AKPENN WHICH HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST 3 DAYS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW
FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF FILLING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE WEST. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO THE GULF COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGEING FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WESTWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS CLOUD BREAKS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE SIDE. THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
HELP HEAT THE SURFACE AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE WERE
REPORTS OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND MINI CBS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SET-UP TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-WAVE IS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY SO WILL NOT GET AS MUCH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVELS.

OUT WEST OVER THE BERING SEA THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOWSOUTHWEST
OF CAPE NEWENHAM (JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER VORT-MAX) DRIFTING WESTWARD.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NORTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS SHORT-WAVE ROTATES WESTWARD ACROSS KENAI
PENINSULA TODAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE AKPENN.
AS EVERYTHING PUSHES TO THE WEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RISING PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS. ONE MORE SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY...AGAIN BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS STRONG LOW MOVES TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH...BRINGING MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL STILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE IMPACT OF GULF LOW WILL BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

OUT WEST...AN WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND INTO THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW...SO THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MAX SMALL CRAFT TO MIN GALE
RANGE. OTHER THAN THAT...LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN BERING BY WEEKS END
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE PATTERN IS STABLE AND ALASKA/BERING
SEA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH JET DOWN
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA (INCLUDING MAINLAND ALASKA) FLOW
LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY WEAK AND FORCING ALOFT LOOKS WEAK (UPPER
LOWS/SHORT-WAVES). MARGINALLY COOLER AIR ALOFT DOES FILTER OVER THE
MAINLAND WHICH COULD HELP SET OFF DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE GENERAL THEME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 07