Gale Warning 436, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 212336
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LARGE 972 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 982 MB 200 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT APR 21 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OUT THROUGH 120 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PERSISTS OVER
EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER RUSSIAN FAR EAST BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
OLD 988 MB SFC LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND NEAR 53N 145W WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN MORNING.
LARGE STRONG 973 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR 45N 175W
WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MOVE TO NEAR 52N 157W
SUN AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. AFTERWARDS THE LOW
THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
BUT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEW SYSTEM OUT OF THE WEST.
KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE NO BREAK BUT REMAIN IN EASTERLY FLOW UNDER
STEADY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA DRY BUT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NORTH PACIFIC STORMS WILL BEGIN TO TRACK FURTHER INTO SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. PATTERN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 07