Gale Warning 420, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 141206
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WEAKENS TO 989 MB SUN NIGHT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A 984 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUN NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SUN.

$$

PKZ150-150200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST WIND 30KT. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NORTH WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-150200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-150200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-150200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-150200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-150200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-150200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-150200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-150200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 14 2007

..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI APR 13 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOWS SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF AND A
COMPLEX LOW IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE GULF LOW INLAND SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTHEAST AK...AND LEAVING
A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SAT. IT IS IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WHERE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
CENTER ALONG 50 N SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SAT NIGHT. THE UKMET TRAILS
THE GFS SOLUTION INITIALLY...BUT COMES IN LINE SAT NIGHT...AND THE
NAM GENERALLY TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK. FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES THE
GFS SOLUTION WAS USED. THE THIRD LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FOR THE WEEKEND IS ALSO HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS... THE COMPLEX LOW WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS...SMALL CRAFT AND GALES TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND AK PEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW AFFECTS THE SAME AREA WITH
THE SAME CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON AND LASTING THROUGH WED.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW MAY
TRIGGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SIDES OF THE ALASKA AND
ALEUTIAN RANGES THROUGH SAT...OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW TRANSITING THE CHAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT THE AKPEN
AND BRISTOL BAY WITH SHOWERS...AND PARTIAL CLEARING INLAND. RIDGING
AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE THE THIRD ALEUTIAN LOW ARRIVES BY
MIDWEEK WITH SHOWERS ONLY AFFECTING THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

IN THE EAST...THE LOCATION OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING IT ACROSS THE CHUGACH
RANGE. A DECAYING TRIPLE POINT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST ALEUTIAN
LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

OUT WEST...A THIRD LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...WHICH MEANS
THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS A LARGER AREA FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHWEST AK WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FROM
THE SECOND LOW WITH A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE LOW NUMBER THREE ARRIVES
LATE NEXT WEEK.

MOST OF THE EAST WILL HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW NUMBER TWO REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 155 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS APR 07