Gale Warning 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 112317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 973 MB LOW
350 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB SOUTH OF YAKUTAT FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-121400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-121400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED APR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE APR 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR/OBS INDICATING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ATTM.
THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRISTOL BAY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP ONSHORE
FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. A VERY WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MOVES EAST TO AFFECT THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.MODELS...ALL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF. THE LAST TWO GFS AND NAM
MODEL RUNS HAVE THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE TO BE THE FASTER...MOVING THE LOW INTO
THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 BECAUSE OF THIS QUICKER TREND TO USHER THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST WE CONTINUE TO THINK THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT
ON SOUTHCENTRAL WEATHER AS IT STAYS TO OUR SOUTH AND THAT THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE STORM LATER THIS WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...MOST LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
DISPARITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN BOTH TRACK AND STRENGTH. BOTH
DOMAINS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH LITTLE TWEAKING OF
THE EXTENDED GRIDS.

.SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...AS THE DECAYING LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND EDGE SLOWLY TO THE WEST...A 140KT JET
ALONG 40N SWEEPS UP THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW AND CARRIES IT EAST INTO
THE GULF. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS IN THE USUAL
COASTAL FAVORED AREAS. KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA LOOK
TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME WIND AND RAIN FOR THE LOW
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF MID WEEK. WEAK RIDGING COULD
ALLOW SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. FREEZING LEVELS HAVE BEEN LOWERING THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS AS SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION DRAINS SOUTH CREATING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS STABLE DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WARMING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THIS IS JUST A CHANCE AT THIS
TIME SINCE THE WEAK RIDGING THAT WILL PRODUCE THE CLOUD BREAKS WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE ALEUTIANS...A WEAK UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CAPES AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOOKING TO TRACK MORE ZONAL THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THE WIND THREAT LOOKS TO MAINLY CENTER ON THE FAR
EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CAPES SHOULD CONTINUE AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED...THE CURRENT THREE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
TRANSITION INTO A SPRING-TIME PATTERN OF SHORTENED WAVELENGTHS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC THE STORM TRACK LOOKS TO STAY ANCHORED OVER 50N AND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MCKIM/EZ APR 07