Gale Warning 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231916 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1115 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

UPDATED ZONES 130 AND 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 969 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE THIS MORNING AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. THIS CENTER
THEN MOVES TO 70 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1004 MB SATURDAY
NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ120-240200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS. 
EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING WEST 30 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1025 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. LOCAL AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240200-
PASSAGE CANAL
1025 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY NOON. GUSTS TO 40 KT
THIS MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1115 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W TO SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W TO SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1115 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT NORTH OF ANCHOR POINT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT NORTH OF ANCHOR POINT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ141-240200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8
FT...HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER BAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 232341
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-241400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR SEWARD IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-241400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W TO SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W TO NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT NORTH OF ANCHOR POINT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ141-241400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS
6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS...HIGHEST NEAR THE OUTER BAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE 
WATERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI MAR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NAM HAS A SLIGHT
EDGE OVER GFS REGARDING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN GULF LOW.
MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SURROUND HANDLING OF BERING SEA LOW OVER
THE WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES BRISTOL BAY. GFS HAS BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO FAVORED THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS BUT QUICKLY BLEND WITH AND THEN SWITCH TO GFS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

SURFACE...972 MB LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. SNOW BEING REPORTED
ALL ALONG THE COAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALDEZ WHO IS GETTING
DOWNSLOPED AND LEFT OUT AT THIS POINT. SOME FLAKES SLIPPED OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED A BIT
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED. GRADIENT ALSO
TIGHTENING UP BRINGING SOME 35 TO 50 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE NORMAL
CHANNELED AREAS. FRESH SNOW FROM WEDNESDAYS EVENT IS EASILY BEING
LIFTED AND BLOWN AROUND TEMPTING US INTO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
THOMPSON PASS THIS MORNING. OUT WEST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

UPPER AIR...LONG RANGE TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH
SHORTWAVES LOCATED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND CENTRAL
BERING. THE ANCHOR UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN THE TROF OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY.
BEHIND IT...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...SOME QUESTION REMAINING AS TO WHERE NRN GULF
LOW IS GOING TO TRACK THIS MORNING AND ITS EVENTUAL AFFECTS ON
ANCHORAGE BOWL. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS IN A SEMI FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR SNOW IN ANCHORAGE...UPPER FEATURES ARE LACKING. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVERHEAD AND MORE MOISTURE
AT THE MID LEVELS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN LATER THIS MORNING
AT 850 MB BUT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE FIRST PERIOD BUT FEEL MOST SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH WEST ANCHORAGE SEEING LITTLE ACCUMULATION...IF
ANY.

HAVE ALSO MADE A LAST SECOND DECISION TO INCLUDE A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY FOR 125. TWO VERY UNTIMELY OUTAGES AT PATO AND PAWR LEFT US
IN A BIND BUT FEEL THERE ARE LIKELY AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

NRN GULF LOW WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INLAND WITH A WEAK RESIDUAL LOW
REMAINING IN THE PWS VICINITY. SNOW SHOWERS IN PWS COASTAL AREAS AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND WHILE WEST OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA RANGES ENJOY A PLEASANT WEEKEND. SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
AND WITH IT CLOUDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

SURFACE WEST OF ALASKA RANGE...WEAK SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INTERIOR WILL ENDURE CONTINUED COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850 WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROF ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY. THE RELIEF IS SHORT LIVED AS COLD
AIR SLIPS SOUTHWARD AGAIN MONDAY AS THE TROF CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE
AND NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
         BLOWING SNOW ADV 125.
MARINE...GALE 120 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 141 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAR 07