Gale Warning 324, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 211131
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  A 990 MB LOW 300 NM
SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SEGUAM ISLAND 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS 993 MB.  A 991 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 150 NM SOUTH OF
UMNAK ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-220200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-220200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE MAR 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEYOND THAT BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT MAINLY WITH THE GFS WITH IS
DEEPER AND FASTER THAN THE NAM AND IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE UKMET.
THE GFS HAS BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST RUNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. A TROUGH
WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN WILL GENERATE A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE TO JUST
WEST OF KODIAK THIS EVEN THEN CONTINUE ON INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE POLAR LOW WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN AND
DRIFT SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN STATE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE MAINLAND THROUGH
THE WEEK.

IN THE EAST A STRONG FRONT FROM THE OUT WEST WILL APPROACH KODIAK
THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN IN KODIAK THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE LOW KODIAK COULD SEE SOME
MIXING WITH RAIN THIS EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY ALL SNOW IN
OTHER AREAS ALONG THE COAST WITH A CHANCE FOR THE INLAND AREAS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF YAKUTAT.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL SET UP IN NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ALONG SOME GOOD VORTICITY AND COLD AIR SETTING
UP THE ANCHORAGE BOWL FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUT WEST THE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BUT QUICKLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. BRISTOL BAY AREAS WILL SEE STRONG EASTERLIES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD CUT BACK ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRICIPITATION. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF THE WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN AND GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
BERING AND SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A GOOD SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVER
MOST OF THE AREA AND SNOW SH0WERS. THE REST OF THE WEEK THE GRADIENT
FALLS APART OVER THE BERING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A SERIES OF
LOWS PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING  181
         BLIZZARD WATCH 125
MARINE...STROM 120
         GALE 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KB MAR 07