Gale Warning 316, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED MAR 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS A BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE BERING SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A LOW OVER
THE GULF AND ANOTHER LOW IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT WEST OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION SUNDAY.
THE DEEP COLD AIR NOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE
WEEKEND TO THEN BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF DEEP COLD ARCTIC AIR
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REGIONS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECT THE STRONG GAP WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
LOW WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MOVING TO THE NORTH GULF COAST SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS STORM WILL ALSO
BRING WITH IT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT AND SUN. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND HELP TO KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE LAST WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW OUR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

OUT WEST THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE WIND
BECOMING MORE NORTH TO EAST IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND SPREAD THE
AREA OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN LESS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA DUE TO THE OFF SHORE AND OFF
ICE FLOW STOPPING THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND EXPECT PERSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
MOVE WEST TO THAT REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 131.
MARINE...GALE ZONES 120 121 130 132 138 150 175 176 350.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ZONES 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 141
         150 155 165 179 410.
FIRE WEATHER...YEAH RIGHT.

SAM MAR 07