Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 112340 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

ADDED SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS TO MARINE ZONE 165

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH TUE.
$$

PKZ150-121400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-121400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT...GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-121400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.  
.MON...N WIND 25 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.  
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-121400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-121400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT.  
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-121400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTHEAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-121400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-121400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-121400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-121400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-121400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT.  
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-121400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN MAR 11 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT MAR 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING (BETWEEN 170E AND 180) AND DEEP CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GULF
LOW TO BRISTOL BAY AND IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD. ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE
AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS CROSSES THE AKPENN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW ARCTIC AIR IS
STREAMING DOWN FROM THE POLE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
BERING. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
GULF LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO TROUGH AND SLIDE EASTWARD A BIT BY MONDAY
ALLOWING BERING RIDGE TO SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT AREA OF
COLD ADVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/AKPENN TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

SURFACE GULF REGION...THERE ARE CURRENTLY THREE SURFACE LOWS EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. ONE JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
HAS BEEN VERY POTENT AS IT HAS TRACKED ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST GULF
LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. ANOTHER LOW
IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
MIDDLETON ISLAND. AND YET ANOTHER LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
FAR EASTERN GULF. IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EXACT
TRACK OF THESE LOWS AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE GULF. BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH IS THAT GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST WILL SEE VAST MAJORITY OF
IMPACT OF THESE LOWS AND EACH LOW WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR
EFFECTS...BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH
MONDAY ONE DOMINANT SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THEN...AS WE HEAD TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHIFTS TO SOUTHCENTRAL...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP DOWN AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.

SURFACE BERING SEA REGION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN RUSSIA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE
FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF SYSTEMS TRACKING
TO THE WEST...SO THEY HAVE A SHOT A LITTLE PRECIP THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND WITH SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW THEY WILL DEFINITELY BE THE
WARMEST PLACE IN THE ANCHORAGE AOR THIS NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING SEA IS UNDERGOING COLD ADVECTION...GUSTY
NORTHERLIES...AND SNOW SHOWERS. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE PRIBILOFS. HOWEVER...WITH ICE EDGE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH FETCH OF OPEN WATER IS DECREASING. SNOW HAS ENDED ON SAINT
PAUL AND VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP SIGNIFICANTLY. SAINT GEORGE STILL
HAS ENOUGH OF A FETCH TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS SO VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LOWER THERE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
FOR SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. WILL MONITOR OBS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE WITH WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 20 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO COME UP A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...SO PLAN TO ISSUE A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY. TOMORROW THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS
THE BERING HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP
AND WINDS TO INCREASE. THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION
SNOW SHOWERS FORMING OFF THE THE ICE EDGE. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/AKPENN AS HEAD THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD AND COLD ADVECTION SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL.
CONTINUED DRY AND COLD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT NIGHT.

MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SYNOPTIC
POSITIONS AND DEPICT SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. NAM HAS
A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON LOW POSITIONS IN GULF SO WILL SIDE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION WHEN FORECASTING DETAILS IN THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 150 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 150 155 165 170 171 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 07