Gale Warning 291, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 060046
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A 960 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA TUE
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 968 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-061500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-061500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-061500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-061500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-061500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...N WIND 25 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-061500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-061500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-061500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-061500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 5 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN MAR 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE RETURNING TO SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THAT STRETCHES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF DROPPING PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN. WINDS CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY NORTH OF TALKEETNA AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FOR
MONDAY. THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AND COLDER AIR
IS MOVING IN THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT WHETHER WINDS WILL COME UP
TO WIND WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE YUKON AND THEN MOVES
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS FARTHER
WEST THEN THE ONE LAST WEEK. THIS IS KEEPING THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WEST OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND IS A LARGE REASON WHY
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WHEN OFTEN THEY ARE PROTECTED BY THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALSO THE REASON WHY THERE ARE NO
WIND WATCHES OUT FOR ZONES 131 OR 135. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PASS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

THINGS WILL GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE A
BIT INCONSISTENT BUT ARE ALL BRINGING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES ARE VARYING QUITE A BIT AT THIS TIME BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING AS A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP WINDS CRANKED UP
FOR A WHILE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 111.
MARINE...GALES 121 129 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140
                              141 150 155 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 07