Gale Warning 228, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230426 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
725 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 132 AND 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 989 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL 
MOVE TO NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
725 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
725 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
725 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
725 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU FEB 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
900 AM AST WED FEB 22 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEAR COLD AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST...AND A UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC BEING DRIVEN EAST FROM THE DATELINE TO WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

OVER THE EAST THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STABLE PATTERN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DOMAIN THROUGH DAY 3...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
A STEERING UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE MCKENZIE RIVER DELTA
BEGINS TO PULL NORTH BUT NOT BEFORE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
ACTS TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THOMPSON PASS
CONTINUES TO GUST TO 75 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH HAVE KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND THOMPSON PASS
RESPECTIVELY...DESPITE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...MATSU BOROUGH...AND THE KENAI PENINSULA HAVE MAINTAINED WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS.

IN THE WEST...CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BEFORE A LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF SIBERIA CARRYING ITS FRONT ACROSS THE
Y/K DELTA FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS SOLUTION
WAS FOLLOWED IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA...THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING.

EXTENDED...BEYOND DAY 3 THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING
THE FEATURES OUT WEST. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION DEEPENS A LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE GFS NAM AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST...HAVE NOT TWEAKED THE
EXTENDED GRIDS MUCH OVERNIGHT. IN THE EAST THE MODELS HINT AT A
SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THOMPSON PASS
         HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COPPER RIVER DELTA
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR 141 AND 145
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 121 172 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRARY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150
         160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SDM FEB 07