Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE 250 NM SOUTH OF SITKA THU MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. 
A 984 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 640
NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA.  SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 21 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED FEB 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEAR COLD AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST...AND A UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC BEING DRIVEN EAST FROM THE DATELINE TO WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

OVER THE EAST THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STABLE PATTERN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DOMAIN THROUGH DAY 3...THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
A STEERING UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE MCKENZIE RIVER DELTA
BEGINS TO PULL NORTH BUT NOT BEFORE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
ACTS TO REINFORCE THE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THOMPSON PASS
CONTINUES TO GUST TO 75 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH HAVE KEPT THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND THOMPSON PASS
RESPECTIVELY...DESPITE THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...MATSU BOROUGH...AND THE KENAI PENINSULA HAVE MAINTAINED WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN THESE AREAS.

IN THE WEST...CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BEFORE A LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF SIBERIA CARRYING ITS FRONT ACROSS THE
Y/K DELTA FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS SOLUTION
WAS FOLLOWED IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA...THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING.

EXTENDED...BEYOND DAY 3 THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING
THE FEATURES OUT WEST. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION DEEPENS A LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE GFS NAM AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS. FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST...HAVE NOT TWEAKED THE
EXTENDED GRIDS MUCH OVERNIGHT. IN THE EAST THE MODELS HINT AT A
SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THOMPSON PASS
         HIGH WIND WARNING FOR COPPER RIVER DELTA
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR 141 AND 145
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 121 172 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRARY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150
         160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SDM FEB 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
541 AM AST WED FEB 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST THOMPSON PASS           61.14N 145.75W
02/21/2007  M82.00 MPH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RECORDED AT THOMPSON PASS RWIS.

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
02/20/2007  M82.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            RECORDED AT VALDEZ WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HANDAR.

0626 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 60 S CORDOVA            59.68N 145.75W
02/20/2007  M81.00 MPH       PKZ120             XX   SHIP

            VESSEL GULF TITAN RECORDED GUST OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
            DELTA 50NM ESE OF CAPE HICHINBROOK.

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST THOMPSON PASS           61.14N 145.75W
02/20/2007  M80.00 MPH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RECORDED AT THOMPSON PASS RWIS.

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST VALDEZ                  61.08N 146.30W
02/20/2007  M74.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUST AT VALDEZ AIRPORT.

&&

MCKIM