Gale Warning 209, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
TODAY. A 992 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 100 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY LATE SAT
NIGHT AND MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA SUN AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK SUN
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AT 977 MB LATE
SUN NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SAT FEB 17 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST FRI FEB 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SOME WEAK FEATURES ARE PRODUCING SNOW TODAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SITTING RIGHT OVER ANCHORAGE...THERE IS
AN UPPER TROUGH SITTING ROUGHLY EAST-WEST OVER THE GULF AND MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SOME VORTICITY
ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS HAS SET UP
NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW FROM THE KENAI MOUNTAINS TO ANCHORAGE TO
THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. AREAS OF SNOW ARE ALSO FALLING FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE GULF TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL STALL AND BE
PULLED EASTWARD BY A MAJOR LOW HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND END
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MAJOR STEERING LOW THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS NOW ARRIVED AND IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. GFS HAS VERIFIED QUITE
WELL WITH THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THIS LOW. OBSERVATIONS FOR ADAK
INDICATE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN WITH PARENT
LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. THE
COMBINATION OF A QUICKLY WEAKENING FRONT COMBINED WITH PLACEMENT OF
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF ALASKA MEANS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
EXPERIENCE MINIMAL IMPACTS...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SNOW NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY MAJOR BLOWING
SNOW PROBLEMS. KODIAK ISLAND WILL ALSO SEE PRECIP FROM THE FRONT BUT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
SO THAT INLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN
DRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT
SOME OF THIS COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS. COMBINATION COLD
ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STORM FORCE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SURFACE TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE BLIZZARD LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH
DONT EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE LIKELY WILL BE OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG BENT BACK OCCLUSION AND IN
COLD ADVECTION GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS/COLD ADVECTION
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW SITS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

ALSO OF NOTE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LOW NEAR THE BOTTOM OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AT 40N 161E. THIS LOW WILL SWING EASTWARD WITH THE
TROUGH AND THEN BE FORCED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AKPENN BY THE
UPPER JET. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. WITH GOOD UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL TEND TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
GFS IS 10 OR MORE MILLIBARS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS SO WILL GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS ABOUT HALF WAY
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE MUCH WEAKER NAM SOLUTION. WILL
DOWNPLAY THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW UNTIL WE GAIN A BETTER IDEA OF HOW
IT WILL EVOLVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 165 170 171 180 185.
         STORMS 172 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

SEB FEB 07