Gale Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 071221
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 360 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE
TO 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON THEN DEEPEN TO 975 MB 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WIND
15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONGEST
WEST OF ATKA. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 7 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE FEB 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. THE LOW OVER THE BERING TO WEAKEN ALONG WITH THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WRAPPING BACK INTO THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF
FROM THIS FRONT BUT DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN INTO THE YUKON THURSDAY.

MODELS...
MODELS INITIALIZED OK THIS MORNING. SEEMS THE GFS HAS HANDLED THE
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS BETTER. ALL MODELS SEEMED TO MISS THE
MORE NORTHERN LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. THE MODELS ALL
INITIALIZED THESE TOO FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WAS OK. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES WERE
ALL HANDLED VERY SIMILAR BY THE EUROPEAN AND NCEP MODELS THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME FRAME...EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS QUITE
DIFFERENT OVER THE BERING THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...
LARGE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BIGGEST CHANGES WILL OCCUR OVER THE MAINLAND WITH THE BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGE A BIT. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA TO BE CUT
OFF FROM THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK CLOSED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK LATE
IN THE WEEK PUSHING THE LOW TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS THEN SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS PUSHED NORTH. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE TOMORROW WITH SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THE SITUATION ARE RATHER WEAK...SO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THE FRONT TO TEAR APART
TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDES NORTH ALONG IT. THE LOW TO DISSIPATE AS
WELL AS IT SETTLES UNDERNEATH THE PARENT LOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE TO RIDE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING PUSHING TO THE CENTRAL BERING
AS WELL. THE SHORT WAVE IS PRECEDES A LARGE LOW INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING
THURSDAY AND TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY. THE FRONT ALSO PUSHES THE
CENTRAL BERING FEATURE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME...THE ENTIRE
BERING IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 170 171 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 07