Gale Warning 103, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171539 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
635 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

UPDATED AREA 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR SELDOVIA DISSIPATES WED AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW
500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK INTENSIFIES TO 984 MB THU MORNING NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THEN MOVES INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT SUBSIDING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
635 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180059
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 30 NM
NORTHWEST OF CORDOVA THU EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.
 
$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE 
FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING 
SPRAY.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP STEERING LOW CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS ANCHORED IN PLACE
BY AN OMEGA BLOCK JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF SIBERIA. THIS IS
STEERING STORMS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THOUGH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. VERY STRONG RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PERIODICALLY BE SQUASHED DOWN DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AS THE JET STREAM DRIVES SYSTEMS INTO WASHINGTON STATE...BUT IT
CANNOT RETROGRADE DUE TO THE STUBBORN ALEUTIAN LOW SO IT POPS BACK
UP IN THE SAME PLACE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A VERY STABLE
PATTERN.

A STRONG AND VERY LONG FRONT STRETCHES FROM ABOUT SAINT PAUL ISLAND
EASTWARD TO CAPE NEWENHAM...SOUTHEAST TO KODIAK ISLAND...AND THEN
ALMOST STRAIT SOUTH FROM THERE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
ABATING IN THE WEST...AND WILL DEVELOP THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH KODIAK AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON
THURSDAY. A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THIS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

THE OVER-ALL PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS BEGIN THEIR USUAL DIVERGENCE BY
MONDAY...BUT THIS KIND OF PATTERN IS VERY STABLE AND ODDS ARE IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY LONGER. ENSEMBLES AND
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEEK TWO OUTLOOKS (6-10 DAYS AND
8-14 DAYS) AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125. BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
MARINE...STORM 130. GALE WARNING 120 132 138 170 171 175 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG JAN 07