Brisk Wind Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 160054 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

UPDATED ZONES 170...171

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 976 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK TUE AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 981 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. A FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TUE WITH ANOTHER CROSSING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUE NIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT 150 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT 
IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ165-161500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ170-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-161500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ179-161500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 160403 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

UPDATED ZONE 150 160 165 172 175 180

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 976 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK TUE AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 981 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. A FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TUE WITH ANOTHER CROSSING 
THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUE NIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP 
ALONG THIS SECOND FRONT 150 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT 
IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ165-161500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT.
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ170-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
700 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-161500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ179-161500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 60 HOURS.
GFS PREFERRED MODEL DUE ITS BETTER HANDLING OF MULTIPLE SMALL LOW
CENTERS OVER BERING SEA BEGINNING AT 36 HOURS.

AS OF 12Z...UPPER LEVELS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP TROUGH FROM
BARROW TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BY A A FLAT NOSED RIDGE EXTENDING OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. DEVELOPING
H514 LOW NEAR 48N 177E WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER. BY 18Z TUE...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE RECEDED BACK UP INTO CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE HAS
SHIFTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. AND A WELL DEVELOPED CUT OFF H506 LOW IS
ANCHORED OVER ADAK...AND REMAINS SO THROUGH 72 HOURS.

AT THE SFC...ALL MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE RESIDUAL LOW NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. BEST GUESS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSOLVE INTO THE FAMILIAR NORTH GULF COAST TROUGH BY THIS EVENING.
TROUGH ITSELF DISSIPATES BY TUE MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS FROM WHITTIER TO
TO THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL END BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES STILL AN ISSUE
FOR THOMPSON PASS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BROAD STRATOCUMULUS DECK ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND. INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SPORADIC PERIODS OF SNOW BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED FRONT EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD TEMPORARILY SCOUR OUT
THE AREA BEFORE NEXT JOLT OF PRECIP ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.

PER THE GFS...THE LARGE 980 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL BECOME A
974 MB LOW APPROX 75 NM NORTH OF ATKA TUE NIGHT AND A COMPLEX LOW
CENTERED NEAR SAINT PAUL WED NIGHT. THE LOW THEN REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO 990 MB.

ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING...EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE TUE AFTERNOON. MAX GALES ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ALSO AMPLE PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIP FALLING AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE HORIZON...THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE
POINT LOW ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE THE ISSUE.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AROUND 45N 155W SOMETIME TUE NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO TRACK DUE
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 07