Brisk Wind Advisory 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED MAR 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE IN AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE
THURSDAY. GFS IS FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE NAM. GFS AND UKMET SEEM
TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST SO GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.

THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS THE POLAR LOW HAS DROPPED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. A BROAD COVER THE BERING SEA WITH ITS
AXIS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.  THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING.

IN THE EAST THE STRONG SURFACE SEEM TO BE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
MODEL SUGGESTS. AT 9Z IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK AND TRACKING INTO THE NORTH GULF AND MOVING INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. THE WORST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH THE PUSHING INTO THE GULF.
WINDS ARE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. SHOULD GET SOME SHOWERS LATER
IN THE MORNING BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. EXPECT THE SNOW ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO MIX WITH RAIN BY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY LATER TODAY SHOULD BRING MORE SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY, ANCHORAGE BOWL AND ALONG KENAI
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT A BIG SNOW EVENT BUT SHOULD
GET SEVERAL INCHES.

OUT WEST WITH THE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE BERING SEA TODAY. EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS
WILL DRIFT EAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN AREA OF

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 150 165 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 150 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KB MAR 07