Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021717 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
815 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 150 

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

NORTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW DEVELOPING 700 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL INTENSIFY TO 984 MB AND MOVE TO 350 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA BY TUE EVENING. THIS LOW PROCEEDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB
AS IT MOVES TO 175 NM WEST OF ADAK BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
815 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. PACIFIC SIDE...SOUTHWEST WIND
60 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT . SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 030004
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 958 MB 
120 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
TO 50 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND WEAKEN TO 969 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 2 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...NAM/GFS MODEL MSLP/300MB HT INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE.
NAM DOES A LITTLE BETTER IN MSLP WITH DUAL CENTERS IN THE GULF. GFS
QPF FIELD A LITTLE BETTER WITH WESTWARD PUCH OF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. FORECAST TRENDS IN GULF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
REASONABLE. OUTWEST...WOULD LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION WITH NEXT MAJOR
LOW TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.UPPER AIR...LONG WAVE OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND DIGS SOUTHEAST WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND TAKES ON NEG TILT OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND GULF TUE
NIGHT/WED. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHCENTRAL AK UNDER SE FLOW AND INCREASE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA. BERING SEA RIDGE INCREASES SOME
IN AMPLITUDE AS LOW CENTER MOVES TO NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PEN WED.

.SURFACE...

.EAST...GULF COMPLEX WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH ONE CENTER MOVING TO THE NE
GULF AND WEAKENING. SECONDARY CENTER MOVES TO SOUTH THE AK PEN
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. WESTERN EXTENT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS TO
BE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...EASTERN KENAI PEN...AND MAT VALLEY. GFS
APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MOISTURE
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SAT AND RADAR SUPPORT
THIS SENARIO. MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE TO HOLD SNOW ADVISORY IN AREA. NEXT CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY WED MORNING. AT SAME TIME UPPER TROUGH
TAKES ON NEG TILT AND 850 MB SHOWS NICE COLD ADVECTION. IF THIS ALL
COMES INTO PLAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND MAT VALLEY WED. CONCERN IS THAT MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
TIMING OF CENTER...GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE SNOW IN FORECAST AND TAKE A LOOK AT NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE
ISSUING WSW PRODUCT.

.WEST...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW
MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL(FAIRLY SLIGHT) AS UPPER CENTER
MOVES INTO REGION TUE/WED. BROAD N/NE FLOW OFF ICE PAC WILL KEEP
OPEN/CLOSED CELL CU OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. NLY
FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT/TUE WITH EASTWARD
PUSH OF RIDGE. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND AS FAR EAST AS THE PRIBILOFS
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...HOWEVER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AK PEN. ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVELY WITH
SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS ALEUTAINS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SHIFTING AND WEAKENING OF NLY FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO HOLD OVER
THE AK PEN INTO WED. NEXT CENTER TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS BRINGS
WARMING TEMPS AND E-SE GALES/STORMS WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 129, 130, 132, 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130, 138, 140, 141, 150, 165, 179, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 07