Wind Advisory 30, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

000 
WWUS73 KABR 211620
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

...STRONG WINDS HEADING TOWARD THE REGION...

.A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FOUND. WINDS AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY GUST TO
45 MPH AT TIMES. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RELAXING LATE
TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-220030-
/O.EXT.KABR.WI.Y.0030.071221T2100Z-071222T1200Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...HERREID...EUREKA...
MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...
PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007 /920 AM MST FRI DEC 21 2007/

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SATURDAY. 

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
45 MPH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS...CREATING DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE BLOWING SNOW.

USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING A HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLE.  SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTSIDE OR BRING THEM
INDOORS.

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-220030-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0030.071222T0000Z-071222T1200Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...ABERDEEN...
BRITTON...SISSETON...WEBSTER...REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...
MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST SATURDAY. 

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BY EARLY
EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING A HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLE.  SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTSIDE OR BRING THEM
INDOORS.

$$

TDK

000 
WWUS73 KABR 212021
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
221 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-212130-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0030.071221T2100Z-071222T1200Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...HERREID...EUREKA...
MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...
PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
221 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007 /121 PM MST FRI DEC 21 2007/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-212130-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0030.071222T0000Z-071222T1200Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...ABERDEEN...
BRITTON...SISSETON...WEBSTER...REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...
MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE
221 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM DEALS WITH PCPN POTENTIAL FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...TIMING OF SAID PCPN...AND
WIND EFFECTS ON SAID PCPN.

MODELS REMAIN IN BROAD AGREEMENT OF EJECTION OF LEAD 5H WAVE OUT
OF WESTERN CONUS TROF INTO CWA...AS FLOW SPLITS WITH STRONGER NRN
STREAM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR
RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S. OF COURSE...THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS THE COOL
SPOT IN THE LOWER TEENS. AREA SOUNDINGS FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATE
THAT LOW LAYERS ARE ALSO RELATIVELY DRY...AND FEEL THAT MINOR
ECHOS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON AREA 88DS ARE MID CLOUD WITH VERY
LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING
DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
MODELS RUNS SHOWING SUCH INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SOLNS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF PCPN.
THE GFS FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA AT THE 7H-6H LAYER SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF BANDING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NE...LEADING TO
PSBL HIGHER SNOW AMTS THAN WHATS IN THERE NOW. ALSO...GIVEN THAT
THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...SOME FZRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT ANY CHANCES WILL BE AN HOUR OR LESS...AS VERY
COLD 85H AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND SYSTEM...TURNING ANY FREEZING PCPN
OVER TO SNOW. SO...HAVE JUST GONE WITH AN ALL SNOW FCST IN THE
GRIDS. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF 7H THETA-E FORCING THAT IS SEEN...COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL OMEGA. THE 295K ANALYSIS FOR BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS INDICATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT COINCIDING WITH AN AREA
OF 3+ G/KG MOISTURE. SPC PCPN TYPE/AMOUNT SREF PLUMES INDICATE
VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF FZRA FOR THE WEST...WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
MEMBERS SHOWING IT. THE SREF MEAN LEANS TOWARD ALL SNOW. OF
INTEREST WAS THAT ONE SREF MEMBER WAS GIVING MBG OVER 7 INCHES OF
SNOW...AND THE SAME MEMBER OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR KPIR.
HOWEVER...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SREF MEAN WITH AROUND AN INCH
EXPECTED.

ONE BIG PROBLEM THAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON WILL BE THE WINDS. BY
06Z SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 8 TO 9 MB/6 HOURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MOVING TO THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z...ALTHO
FALLING TO AROUND 8MB/6HRS BY THEN. THE NAM IS A BIT FURTHER WEST
WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES...BUT IS COMPARABLE WITH THE
VALUES. PLUS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 85H TEMPS FALLING FROM +6C AT
12Z THIS MORNING TO -10C BY 06Z SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING ADVRY CRITERIA. HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVRY
BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THIS MAY BE A BIT
EARLY...BUT MATCHES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFICES. THE WINDS
WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO REACH THE EAST..SO HAVE STARTED THE
ADVRY IN THE EAST AT 00Z SATURDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...HAVE
ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF BLSN IN THE WX GRIDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR IF SNOWFALL IS HEAVIER OR IF BLSN BECOMES A
SERIOUS TRAVEL ISSUE TO BOLSTER OR UPDATE WIND ADVRY INTO A
DIFFERING TYPE OF HEADLINE.

WITH SUCH STRONG CAA EXPECTED...AND 85H COLD POOL SLIDING OVER
AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHTIME...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE REALLY LOWERED MIN TS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN WRAP AROUND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. A FEW MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL RATHER
LOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RATHER
CHILLY TEMPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DROPPED LOWS FOR MONDAY
MORNING SINCE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
WINDS GO LIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA WHERE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SUGGESTIVE OF PERHAPS SOME CLOUD COVER. ALSO
DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS VERY COLD TEMPS AT 925 MB
RESIDE OVER THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WAA SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE CWA FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS STILL SHOWING QPF ACROSS THE
AREA WITH FAIR AMOUNTS OF LIFT/MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BR BEING REPORTED AT KABR/KATY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS
AROUND 6SM. EXPECT BR TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13-14Z WITH VSBYS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 4-6SM. ISO LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SD MAY SEE MORE DENSE FG WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO BELOW 1SM.
AS FOR CIGS...BKN-OVC VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000-15000 FT. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH MVFR ACROSS KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST INTO KABR/KATY LATER THIS
EVENING. -SN/SN WILL ALSO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE DAYTIME AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REACHING KATY BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. VSBYS COULD DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN -SN/SN
WHILE CIGS GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OR HIGH END IFR. SFC WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS KMBG/KPIR AFTER
21Z...AND INTO KABR/KATY AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD REACH 25-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM CST /5 AM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-
     FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
347 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-212200-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
347 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007 /247 PM MST THU DEC 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THEN ONE HALF MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND
REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEN...COLD AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION...TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW. ALSO...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...BLOWING AROUND THE
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW...AND CREATING SOME VISIBILITY PROBLEMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN