Wind Advisory 17, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD

000 
WWUS73 KABR 172049
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN UP INTO THE EVENING HOURS INTO THE 20 TO
35 MPH RANGE.

SDZ033-035-045-048-172200-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-070617T2300Z/
STANLEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERRE...PIERRE...MURDO...PRESHO
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007 /249 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2007/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051-172200-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-070618T0200Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-HYDE-HAND-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...EUREKA...
ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...IPSWICH...WEBSTER...FAULKTON...
REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...
CLEAR LAKE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...FORT THOMPSON
349 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE TEENS
CELSIUS...THUS CAPPING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN
IDAHO...PROGRESSES EASTWARD TODAY...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AS THE MID LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD...WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD FRONT...PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA...AS THAT PORTION OF
THE CWA IS BETTER ORIENTED WITH THE 100KT JET MAX
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. DRY SLOT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...ALLOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE TONIGHT SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. WRAP- AROUND CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA INTO MONDAY...BUT PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 1.85 THIS EVENING INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY SORT OF WATER
HEADLINE AS DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING TO BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED HEAVY RAIN WORDING
INTO THE FORECAST.

MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AS
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 20S CELSIUS...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA. LATEST RUC INDICATING CLOSE TO 50KT WINDS
AT 850MB...WITH 30-35KT WINDS AT 925MB...AND A VERY TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ADVERTISED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TODAY...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE SOME
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF TO
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH THIS FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS IS ALWAYS A DIFFICULT FORECAST DIRECTION BECAUSE IT IS
TYPICALLY FAST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED MINOR WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY. THE FIRST WEATHER MAKER
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A WAVE IN THE H5 UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH HAS SET UP AND IS STARTING TO MOVE WITH
THIS WAVE. THE GFS SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM FEEDBACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY DISTURBED FLOW IS NOTED OVER THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING SEEMS DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AGAIN BEFORE THURSDAY. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
CAN RESOLVE THIS WAVE THE ARE OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FARTHER WEST AND FARTHER IN TIME.

&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL LARGELY VFR. THERE IS A
STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND SEVERAL OTHER MUCH SMALLER AREAS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS
ARE NOTED IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 80 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY DAYLIGHT.
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE GOOD VFR WITH UNLIMITED CEILING
AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. BUT THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN FORM IN THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT
     /5 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ALBRECHT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-171030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
523 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007 /423 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS AT THIS TIME IS LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ALBRECHT