Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WWUS53 KABR 252127
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
427 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

SDC041-252145-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-070525T2145Z/
DEWEY SD-
327 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL DEWEY COUNTY...

AT 325 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE MOREAU REC
AREA...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANTRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LITTLE MOREAU REC AREA AROUND 345 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4527 10141 4522 10126 4522 10119 4536 10105
      4538 10138


$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CENTER AROUND STORMS AND THEN TEMPERATURES.
FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING WAVE NOW TURNING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING UP OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE WARM FRONT LOOKS
CAMPED OUT ALONG ND/SD BORDER AREA. SEVERE STORMS ALREADY POPPING
OVER WEST RIVER AREA. EXPECT THAT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY
AXIS EXISTS. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ONCE STORMS TRACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA...THEY WILL RUN INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR
AND THUS SUSPECT THEY WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ORDINARY STORMS BY
THAT TIME. BASED ON SYSTEM STRENGTH...LIKELY POPS SEEM ENTIRELY
APPROPRIATE. CONCERNING WINDS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA MAY SEE
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AT TIMES THIS EVENING...BUT DECIDED
WITH SVR WATCH IN PLACE THAT THAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN HEADLINE AND
DECIDED TO AXE ADVISORY.

BY SATURDAY MOST OF THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED OFF INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN THE MORNING. MAIN NEWS FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS MIXED DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY SUGGEST 50F MIGHT BE THE MAX FOR FAR NORTHEAST
CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS TO THE WEST. ALSO WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
OVER CWA ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNDER LIGHT WINDS
VIA SURFACE HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...ALTHOUGH
LLJ RETURNING TO THE WEST LATE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UP
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT A LATE
NIGHT STORM OVER FAR WESTERN CWA ON NOSE OF STRONG WAA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED TERM BEGINS WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...WITH
THE MODELS ADVERTISING DIVERGING SOLUTIONS INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE. STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH WAA/INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY THEN
INCREASES TOWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS
ADVERTISES CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND LETTING IT SIT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. EC/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IN SUPPORT OF THE EC/CAN SOLUTION...WITH THE
GFS AS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. THEREFORE DID CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. HOWEVER IF THE SOLUTION
BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...COOLER TEMPERATURE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE...AND LATE INTO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CIGS AOA 6K FEET AND UNLIMITED VSBYS.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT
AVIATION...TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

SDZ006-018-261045-
BROWN-SPINK-
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AND OTHER THAN DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE JAMES RIVER FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING RIVER STAGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-261045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME...AND THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-261045-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
532 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007 /432 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OTHER THAN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ECKSTEIN