High Wind Watch 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS SET TO AFFECT THE REGION...AND WINDS. 21Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE SHORT TERM...SO STUCK WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

A COUPLE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO
BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE CWA...BUT DUE TO THEIR FAST
MOVEMENT...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. THE
WINDS BECOME AN ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH OF THE CLIPPERS AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THEM AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS
WILL NOT QUITE MAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY
WILL ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND
GIVE LATER SHIFTS A BETTER CHANCE TO LOOKS AT THE FINE DETAILS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. NO REAL STRONG COLD AIR MOVING
IN WITH EITHER OF THE CLIPPERS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY AID IN
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH...BUT WILL ALSO HINDER
DAYTIME WARMING. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S INTO THE 30S. WARMER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE 06Z GFS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST WITH MOVING THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE 12Z CANADIAN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER YET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE SURFACE TROUGH IN WESTERN SD BY WED EVENING.
HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT THE RECENTLY ACQUIRED 12Z ECMWF REVEALS
THAT ITS SOLUTION HAS THE LOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS 00Z
RUN...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS IN TIMING.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM PUSHES ENE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. BY 00Z SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC 1040+ MB HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...A SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFTING SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN
LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS A WATERTOWN TO PIERRE LINE. WAS RELUCTANT
TO JUMP ON THIS EVENT THIS EARLY AS THE ECMWF RUNS PUSH THE HIGH
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SATURDAY AND KEEP THE
LIFT/MOISTURE MORE TO THE SOUTH. SINCE THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS
FAVOR BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THEN RELATIVELY COLD BY
FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ROOM TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD YET IF
MODELS CONTINUE ON CURRENT PATH.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

PARKIN/KNUTSVIG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
513 AM CST SAT JAN 6 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-071115-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
513 AM CST SAT JAN 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-071115-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
513 AM CST SAT JAN 6 2007 /413 AM MST SAT JAN 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS
40 MPH...DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HINTZ