Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
506 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. UPDATED FOR
TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM IS VERY INTERESTING TODAY. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES.
LEANED TOWARD THE NAM BUT NOT COMPLETELY. LARGE H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORMING
INTO A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND IS ALSO MOVING TOWARD THIS AREA.
MOISTURE FETCH IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. DEW POINTS IN THIS AREA ARE IN THE LOW 60S F. SOUTH OF HERE
DEW POINTS ARE NOTED IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT WSR-88D SHOWING
LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVING NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA WHERE THERE
ARE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN INHIBITED TODAY BY LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN. CURRENT VALUES OF
CAPE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG. EXPECT THESE VALUES TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. BUFKIT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BASED ON THE 12Z
MODEL RUN INDICATE AN UNSTABLE MID LEVEL THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE
MODEL CAPE VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO GET
GOING HERE SOON. RUC MODEL IS SHOWING H85 LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS OF
OVER 65 KTS FORMING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN
LAST NIGHT IN PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALL COUNTIES EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
QUICK CHECK OF CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE NET STORM MOTION TONIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT OF 170/04 KTS. FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED. TOMORROW ALSO LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL IN THE AREA AND THE MOISTURE CONVEYOR STILL
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN MODELS THAT 500MB TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
AND GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS COULD REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES TO THE
EAST... THUS SLIGHT POPS WERE LEFT IN FOR MONDAY OVER THE EAST.
SOME DRY WEATHER THEN AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY SKIRTS
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SURFACE RETURN
FLOW SETS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN START DIVERGING... AS THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER THAN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA... TO A SECOND LOW CENTERED IN THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE 12Z GFS BEGINS MOVING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHILE THE 06 GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN WAIT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO BRING IT TO THE NORTHWEST CWA... AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE. TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE
COULD PROVE TO BE IMPORTANT FOR POPS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING... AS
SURFACE MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED... THOUGH THE GFS BRINGS 60F DEW
POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS ABR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
15 TO 19C ACROSS THE CWA... AND WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED
ACCORDINGLY...TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S CWA WIDE. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL LACK OF MOISTURE... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING... SO KEPT POPS IN
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY. IN FACT... CURRENT 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WITH THE GFS ARE NEAR 9 C/KM... LIFTED INDICES FALL AS LOW
AS -10... AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES PEAK AROUND 2600 J/KG AT 00Z
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SITS RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ITS TIMING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY... VERY LARGE VARIATIONS EXIST BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND VERY LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES EXIST AS WELL.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK... RESULTING IN QUICK
MOVING SURFACE LOWS AND MCS LIKE FEATURES. HOWEVER... TIMING ON
THESE FEATURES VARIES DRASTICALLY BETWEEN RUNS. ALSO... IN
CONTRAST TO THE GFS WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW AND A SLIGHT TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK... THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS
CURRENTLY MORE FAVORED BY HPC DUE TO MORE AGREEMENT FROM OTHER
MODELS... BUT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THROUGH TONIGHT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER ALMOST ANY POINT IN THIS FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ERRATIC AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER AIRPORT
LOCATIONS.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-
     SPINK-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KEEFE
LONG TERM...ECKSTEIN
AVIATION...KEEFE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

SDZ004>007-009>011-016>020-022-034>037-048-051-061130-
CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-LYMAN-
BUFFALO-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM CDT ON MONDAY AS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH EACH RAIN EVENT BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS LIMITED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MISSION RIDGE TO MILLER. THE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY NEED SPOTTER ACTIVATION AFTER 10 PM CDT
TONIGHT.

SDZ003-015-033-045-061130-
CORSON-DEWEY-STANLEY-JONES-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 /517 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS LIMITED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MISSION RIDGE TO MILLER. THE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...WHILE NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY NEED SPOTTER ACTIVATION AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-061130-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ008-021-023-061130-
ROBERTS-GRANT-DEUEL-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT.

DORN