Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WGUS73 KABR 061522
FFSABR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1022 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

SDC091-061532-
MARSHALL SD-
1022 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING 
FOR MARSHALL COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4560 9796 4559 9726 4592 9726 4592 9800

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
415 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES...FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

AT 08Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND APPEARS
TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 00Z NAM WAS FOLLOWED FOR DAY 1. AFTER THAT...BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS APPEAR COMPARABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAY 3. PREFERRED THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION /APPX 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ HOLDING MUCH OF THE
FROPA TIMING BACK UNTIL THE TONIGHT PERIOD TO SWEEP THE FRONT
THROUGH AND TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE
REMAINS...STILL ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH EXPECTED COLD
FRONTAL MOVEMENT YIELDS A FORECAST SOLUTION WHERE THE MAJORITY OF
SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER EAST OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE DISCONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ZONES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS EAST.

RIVER FORECAST STAGES ARE RESPONDING TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINS
OF EARLIER TODAY ARE PUSHING THE JAMES RIVER BACK TO ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE JAMES RIVER THROUGHOUT BROWN AND
SPINK COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUING
FLOODING OF COUNTY ROADS AND CITY STREETS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA DESPITE THE END OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH OF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD WITH REMAINING WESTERN CONUS TROF ENERGY EITHER SHEARING
OUT OR IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...WHILE WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE
CHANGED LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM...AS MAINLY NEUTRAL THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WITH THIS WEAK SURFACE HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NO BIG CHANGES
IN THE MODELS NOTED.

&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PASS THROUGH THE ATY
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ABR MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS COME
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THE TAF LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE THEY RISE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT ATY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY AT ABR AND ATY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

SDZ004>007-009>011-016>020-022-034>037-048-051-061130-
CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-LYMAN-
BUFFALO-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM CDT ON MONDAY AS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH EACH RAIN EVENT BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS LIMITED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MISSION RIDGE TO MILLER. THE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY NEED SPOTTER ACTIVATION AFTER 10 PM CDT
TONIGHT.

SDZ003-015-033-045-061130-
CORSON-DEWEY-STANLEY-JONES-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 /517 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS LIMITED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MISSION RIDGE TO MILLER. THE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...WHILE NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY NEED SPOTTER ACTIVATION AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-061130-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ008-021-023-061130-
ROBERTS-GRANT-DEUEL-
617 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT.

DORN