Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT WILL BE NAILING DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY AND TEMPS BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH 100-120 KNOT
JETS TO THE WEST AND EAST. A SECONDARY JET MAX IS POSITIONED OVER
N NM WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER SE NM. SFC WINDS HAVE INCR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH NEAR WIND ADV CRITERIA ALONG THE LEE
OF THE SANGRES. WINDS ARE STILL INCR OVER THE WIND ADV AREA IN ZONES
1 AND 8 SO LEFT HIGHLIGHTS GOING THRU 02Z.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLN OF THE -3 TO -4 SIGMA H5
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. NAM/GFS 700MB WIND FIELD INDICATES A 40-60
KNOT JET PUSHING ACROSS THE SW MTNS SAT MORNING AND SHEARING NE INTO
THE NE PLAINS BY LATE AFT. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR AREAS E OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS EXCLUDING THE FAR SE ZONES FROM 16Z-02Z. CHALLENGE IN
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND WHETHER
THE ADV AREA WILL BE EXPANDED NW OR SE. WINDS MAY ALSO GO A LITTLE
FURTHER THAN 02Z IN THE FAR NE PLAINS ALTHOUGH DECOUPLING MAY LIMIT
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT. RAISED TEMPS SAT NIGHT A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND E SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO
LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN PREV MODEL RUNS AND EJECTION OF UPPER
LOW HAS SLOWED AS WELL. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SHOULD COME
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. WENT ABOVE ADJMET GUIDANCE OVER THE N
MTNS WHERE LOWER TEENS WERE ADVERTISED.

PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  67  39  60 /  10  30   5   0
GALLUP..........................  50  65  32  61 /   5  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  48  70  33  62 /   5   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  56  78  40  73 /   5   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  42  62  29  52 /  20  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  49  69  39  58 /   5   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  42  65  31  50 /  10   5   5  30
TAOS............................  46  70  39  60 /  10   5   5  10
SANTA FE........................  52  72  41  61 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  75  42  64 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  47  76  40  65 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  80  50  70 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  82  47  72 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  78  47  67 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  80  48  69 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  55  84  48  74 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  73  40  62 /   5   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  48  77  41  65 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  82  48  74 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  54  73  45  66 /  10   0   0   0
RATON...........................  52  79  45  61 /   5   5   5  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  76  44  63 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  56  80  49  66 /   5   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  59  84  52  68 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  57  86  50  76 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  88  57  79 /  10  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  86  54  78 /  10  10   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  62  84  57  81 /  20  20  10   0
PORTALES........................  61  87  55  82 /  20  20  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  64  88  60  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>007-010>013.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ001-008.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007

NMZ001>021-026-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
551 AM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 MPH BY AFTERNOON
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ON DOWNWIND SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS OF SAN JUAN COUNTY. EXPECT LOCALLY
POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY DURING
THE LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WIND SPEEDS WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50
MPH...AND LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT HAZARDOUS WIND SPEEDS...WIND DAMAGE...OR POOR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST.

SHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
201 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007

NMZ016-019-052045-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
201 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER RURAL EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 156 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARABELA.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL EAST CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTY AND RURAL NORTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

50

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