Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA IN NORTHWEST CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST STARTING EASTWARD SWEEP
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...WITH FLOW ALOFT STRONGLY BACKED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS BROADLY FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPEED
SHEAR WITH DYNAMIC ENHANCEMENT FROM 300 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS HELPED GET
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PLAY OFF TO EARLY START THIS MORNING...AND
FURTHER BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL KEEP
STORMS ON THE LONG LIVED AND STRONG SIDE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
CHIEF THREAT APPEARS TO BE WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH GOOD
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER COLUMN WILL HELP ROTATE A FEW
STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

MODELS...HANGING TOGETHER IN SWEEPING TROUGH BASE EASTWARD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND SHEARING OUT RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. RESTORED ZONAL FLOW IN TROUGH WAKE
WILL PERMIT RAPID RETURN MOISTURE TUG FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN TIME
FOR NEXT TROUGH...NOW SITTING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...TO
REINTRODUCE SHOWERS AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
MONDAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY TO RESTORE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TAKING SHAPE OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK CURRENTLY HOLDING NORTH OF THE
STATE AS IT SWEEPS EAST...AND PATTERN WILL BACK WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH TROUGH MUSCLE AT ITS PEAK ACROSS THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE DAY...AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD ON NOSE OF
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL COOL OFF TEMPS TO ALLOW SOME OF THE TAPERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO FALL AS SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

INTO SUNDAY...TROUGH NOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW WEAK
RIDGE IN FLOW ALOFT TO CLEAR SKIES...AND DROP WIND SPEEDS FOR A
HIATUS FROM WEATHER EXCITEMENT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT INBOUND DISTURBANCE.

INTO MONDAY...TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA COUPLED WITH SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TOUCH OFF
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY
WITH TROUGH BASE CLEARING THE STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TROUGH NOW CLEAR OF THE STATE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SET UP CLEARING PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH...AS NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING ALOFT BY
THURSDAY...SOME LOCAL INCREASES IN SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE POSSIBLE...BUT SERIOUS ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  77  44  76 /  10  30   5   0
GALLUP..........................  48  74  34  75 /  10  20   5   0
GRANTS..........................  50  76  39  78 /  10  30   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  53  82  48  83 /  10  20   5   5
CHAMA...........................  42  66  34  71 /  50  80  20   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  65  41  74 /  50  70  20   0
RED RIVER.......................  40  61  32  66 /  50  60  40   0
TAOS............................  49  69  38  75 /  50  60  40   0
SANTA FE........................  50  72  43  75 /  50  60  30   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  74  44  76 /  50  60  20   0
ESPANOLA........................  48  72  42  78 /  50  60  30   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  76  52  78 /  40  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  78  46  80 /  30  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  72  49  76 /  40  40  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  76  50  79 /  40  40  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  55  79  51  80 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  68  42  75 /  40  40  20   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  75  43  76 /  40  40  20   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  77  50  79 /  30  30  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  48  72  46  75 /  40  40  20  10
RATON...........................  50  75  40  76 /  30  20  20   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  73  46  73 /  50  50  30   0
ROY.............................  53  75  50  77 /  30  50  20   0
CLAYTON.........................  56  80  53  76 /  20  30  20   0
SANTA ROSA......................  53  80  49  84 /  20  40  20   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  84  58  82 /  20  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  81  54  84 /  30  30  20   0
CLOVIS..........................  59  82  59  82 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  59  83  57  86 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  62  85  60  87 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NMZ001>021-026-291215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
531 AM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN COULD BE
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTAINING WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

40

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