Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY EVENING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BARRELING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE NE PLAINS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SE CO BEHIND THE
FRONT TO THE MID 80S AT TUCUMCARI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM
BUFKIT PROFILES ACROSS THE E PLAINS SHOW NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES
THROUGH TUES MORNING FROM THE SFC UP TO 400 MB. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT
WINDS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 60-80 KT WSW WINDS PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIP
TO DEVELOP OVER SE NM OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. 12Z NAM/GFS DO
SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES REGARDING HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SE WITH THE
NAM ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SIDED WITH THE 12Z GFS SOLN PER HPC QPF
COLLABORATION AS WELL AS SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z WRF/NOGAPS/GEM SOLNS.
GFS SOLN SHOWS STRONG ISENTROPIC/UPSLOPE LIFT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACS...AS THE FRONT
CRASHES INTO THE AREA. CAN ALSO EXPECT TO SEE DECENT EAST CANYON
WINDS AT 20-30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEGINNING THIS EVE AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED POPS IN THE SE TO HIGH LIKELY AND NUDGED
QPF TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CAT AS
WELL WITH THE FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NM. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS
THE SHEARED UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EXITS TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CO. AS THE UPPER HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO WEST TX
WED THRU FRI EXPECT DRIER SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. POPS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY THURS AND FRI WITH MANY PLACES TO STAY DRY.
MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO CRASH SOUTH INTO
THE E PLAINS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND DECREASING TEMPS AGAIN AND RAISING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  86  57  86 /  20   5  20  10
GALLUP..........................  50  82  49  82 /  20  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  52  79  49  81 /  20  30  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  54  81  53  84 /  20  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  42  74  39  74 /  30  20  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  75  49  79 /  40  30  30  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  68  40  70 /  40  30  30  10
TAOS............................  50  76  44  79 /  40  30  30  10
SANTA FE........................  55  76  49  79 /  40  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  78  51  81 /  40  30  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  56  81  52  84 /  30  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  81  60  85 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  83  56  88 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  78  56  82 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  82  59  86 /  40  30  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  59  84  58  86 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  77  52  78 /  50  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  77  53  82 /  50  30  40  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  80  57  82 /  40  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  51  70  51  75 /  60  50  20  30
RATON...........................  51  76  46  83 /  30  20  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  74  49  80 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  51  76  51  80 /  20  10  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  49  78  52  84 /  10   5  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  57  81  57  87 /  40  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  55  80  57  88 /  30  10  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  81  58  87 /  40  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  58  78  58  85 /  40  20  10  10
PORTALES........................  58  78  57  86 /  50  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  62  78  61  89 /  70  30  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ001>021-026-111200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. ALSO SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN
THIS SAME AREA WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...BRINGING SOME CHANCE
FOR HIGH FLOWS IN OR EVEN MINOR FLOODING OF ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS
AND IN URBAN AREAS MINOR STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

43

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
119 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ004-005-011-102000-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
119 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHWEST SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 115 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR EL PORVENIR. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GALLINAS...MANUELITAS...
MINERAL HILL...MONTEZUMA...OJITOS FRIOS AND ROMEROVILLE.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
202 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ004-005-011-102045-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
202 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...

AT 201 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF VALMORA TO 8 MILES WEST OF ROMEROVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CHAPELLE...EL
PORVENIR...GALLINAS...LOS MONTOYAS...LOWER COLONIAS AND MANUELITAS.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ010-011-102130-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-
241 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS...

AT 238 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR CHILILI. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ESCABOSA.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER