Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN COUPLED JET AREA OF NC
NM. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO NE NM WITH LOW CEILINGS
CURRENTLY AT CLAYTON.  THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES JOIN
FORCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
LIFTED INDICES OF -7C...CAPES OF 2800 J/KG AND DECENT
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED ON NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THUS
SPC SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS ON TRACK.  INSTABILITY AXIS
TRAILS WSW ACROSS I 40 INTO WC/SW NM ALTHOUGH JET STRUCTURE NOT AS
WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY IN THOSE AREAS. STILL...20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
APPROACH 1 INCH AND MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWEST NEAR UPPER RIDGE.

SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NM BY SATURDAY
SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE STORM COVERAGE TO START THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRONT
COULD STILL BE LINGERING IN FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.  BY SUNDAY THE
HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NM.  THIS WAVE THEN FLATTENS THE
HIGH MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN NM.  THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS WWD
INTO AZ FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...OPENING THE DOOR FOR BACK
DOOR FRONTS AND NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS
ERN NM.

TEMP WISE...THE WARMEST HIGHS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW AND SE SECTIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MORE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  95  57  95  61 /   5   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  90  52  90  57 /  10  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  91  53  91  55 /  20  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  93  64  91  64 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  82  45  84  46 /  20  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  87  55  86  56 /  10  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  74  43  78  42 /  20  10  10  10
TAOS............................  88  51  89  51 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  89  56  90  58 /  20  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  91  57  92  59 /  20  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  93  57  93  58 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  93  66  94  66 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  64  95  65 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  63  92  64 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  64  94  65 /  20  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  93  62  92  63 /  20  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  57  87  57 /  20  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  90  57  89  58 /  20  20  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  80  59  79  58 /  20  20  20  20
RATON...........................  90  56  88  51 /  30  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  89  54  86  53 /  20  20  10  10
ROY.............................  89  61  86  59 /  30  30  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  89  63  88  62 /  30  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  94  62  92  62 /  20  20  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  68  94  68 /  20  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  96  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  96  67  91  66 /  10  10  10  20
PORTALES........................  97  68  92  66 /  10  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  99  70  95  69 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NMZ001>021-026-251200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
550 AM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
OTHER STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...INCLUDING UNION...HARDING...COLFAX...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL...GUADALUPE AND QUAY COUNTIES...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
204 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NMZ005-012-242030-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
204 PM MDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 200 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 8 MILES EAST OF MAES. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SABINOSO.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

44

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>