Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED LAST 24 HOURS FROM 5 TO 15
DEGREES OVER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CONTDVD...EVEN OUT AT KGUP AND
KFMN. HASN/T MIXED OUT YET THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE BIG JUMP
ONLY STARTED TO SHOW UP AROUND MIDMORNING AT KGUP. IN
ADDITION...SHIFT IN STEERING FLOW LOOKS EVIDENT ON AZTEC
PROFILER...SO EXPECT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO HIGH
TERRAIN COULD DRIFT INTO NW PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.  CONVECTION GOT OFF TO A QUICK START...BY 10 AM...OVER THE
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...UPPER HIGH
CENTER HAS EXPANDED INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS SHOWN BY GFS TO
ROUND THE CORNER AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST IN THE UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL LIKELY BE
MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER GOOD PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOWING UP FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BASIC SHORT TERM TRENDS OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTAB SHIFTING WESTWARD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY.  EXPECT ANOTHER BOUT OF EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE KABQ
AREA TONIGHT AS WELL AS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL SOME DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH AFFECT THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP.  THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD STRONGLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AT
ARMS LENGTH AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...OR ALLOW IT TO DRIFT
WESTWARD SUFFICIENTLY TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THE LATTER BASED ON THE LATEST VERSION OF THE ECMWF.  THE
GFS INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE A BIT...ALLOWING ANY
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONTS...TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE STANDARD ISSUE GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  97  65  93 /  20  10  30  20
GALLUP..........................  54  92  54  87 /  20  20  30  20
GRANTS..........................  59  89  57  86 /  30  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  56  94  56  92 /  30  20  20  30
CHAMA...........................  50  82  46  80 /  30  30  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  79  57  83 /  40  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  43  74  43  72 /  40  30  20  20
TAOS............................  55  83  50  84 /  50  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  57  84  55  84 /  50  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  87  57  86 /  40  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  62  89  58  89 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  66  89 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  92  62  90 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  62  87 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  92  63  91 /  30  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  92  63  91 /  30  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  79  57  84 /  40  30  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  83  56  84 /  50  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  87  59  84 /  50  30  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  81  53  82 /  40  30  10  20
RATON...........................  54  84  52  84 /  30  30  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  82  50  81 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  57  82  55  82 /  20  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  59  85  60  87 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  61  88  58  88 /  30  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  89  62  90 /  30  20  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  87  63  87 /  30  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  62  87 /  40  20  10  10
PORTALES........................  64  86  62  86 /  40  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  90  65  90 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2007

NMZ001>021-026-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
540 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW MINUTES OF
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SHY

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