Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 PM MDT WED JUN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST.

SHARP SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
AGAIN TODAY.  GRADIENT IS LESS PRONOUNCED IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS AND ENOUGH JUICE IS PRESENT TO FUEL CONVECTION IN THE WEST
AS EVIDENCED BY STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE DIVIDE. EXPECT ALL
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LIGHT UP AS USUAL FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TO LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
EVENING. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 3 AND
8 PM.

IN THE FAR EAST...HEATING HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY VEIL OF CIRRUS. WITH
LOW LEVEL EASTNORTHEAST FLOW AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW...ENVIRONMENT NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION
AS WAS THE CASE LAST EVENING.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS PAST MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE FEEDS IN FROM THE EAST.
ALSO...THE PERSISTENT NE-E FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD BRING ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BY MID EVENING...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT.

WITH THE RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER EAST WIND...EXPECT
SIMILAR AREAS TO SEE STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A
STRONGER EASTERLY PUSH THURSDAY EVENING ALL THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HELPS SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN THE
WEST LONGER THU NGT AND/OR IF IT SEEDS FRIDAYS ACTIVITY.  LIMITING
FACTOR BY FRIDAY WILL BE EVER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO
ENVELOP THE NW TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY.  FOR NOW WILL
COUNT ON SOME REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM THE LATEST GFS SHOWS
HIGH BUILDING SO FAR NORTH THAT SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE GETS INTO
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO RIDE UP
AGAINST THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD CLOSER TO NORMAL BY INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  96  59  97 /   5   5  10   5
GALLUP..........................  49  92  50  93 /   5   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  52  90  53  91 /  20  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  62  93  64  96 /  10  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  45  81  42  81 /  20  30  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  79  51  86 /  50  30  40  20
RED RIVER.......................  42  73  47  74 /  60  50  30  30
TAOS............................  51  83  50  87 /  60  30  40  20
SANTA FE........................  57  82  52  86 /  50  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  85  57  89 /  50  30  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  57  88  56  94 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  90  67  93 /  50  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  67  93 /  40  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  89  64  94 /  50  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  92  62  95 /  40  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  66  93 /  40  20  40  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  83  57  88 /  60  30  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  83  61  88 /  60  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  85  65  91 /  50  30  40  10
RUIDOSO.........................  55  76  57  79 /  60  30  40  20
RATON...........................  51  81  51  85 /  40  20  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  78  52  83 /  50  40  40  20
ROY.............................  57  80  61  82 /  40  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  59  83  58  86 /  30  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  60  87  66  89 /  50  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  89  62  91 /  30  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  88  65  91 /  30  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  62  87  62  88 /  20  10  10   5
PORTALES........................  63  87  62  88 /  20  10  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  91  67  95 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2007

NMZ001>021-026-281200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
559 AM MDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH...HAIL
AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN COLFAX...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL...TORRANCE...LINCOLN...GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT WED JUN 27 2007

NMZ005-007-280030-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
541 PM MDT WED JUN 27 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 537 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES SOUTH OF COKEDALE TO 6 MILES WEST OF ABBOTT. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MAXWELL...RATON CREWS
AIRPORT...SUGARITE AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

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